{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a4bb736a-ff58-48e1-b847-bf794ccabcb5", "symbol": "300338", "name": "Kaiyuan Education Technology Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.899, "architecture_energy": 49.013, "architecture_maturity": 54.211, "architecture_confidence": 91.434, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.88, "rotation_up": 19.36, "upward_expansion": 6.91, "deceleration": 55.25, "rotation_down": 58.86, "downward_expansion": 80.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.756, 2.825636, 3.034048, 3.212108 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 2.87, "trend_reference": 3.411333, "distance_from_trend": -0.158687, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.680769, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.220272, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.75244, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.145833, "excess_performance": -0.153233, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.158687, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.095936, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.220272, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.159418, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.247524, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020556, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.145833, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.645797, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 33877303, "relative_activity": 1.057198, "balance": 0.645797, "dry_up": 1.036905, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.125436, "annualized_volatility": 0.461271, "from_high_reference": -0.411885, "from_low_reference": 0.298643 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.411333, "fair_value_reference": 3.680769, "structural_low": 2.21, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.024246, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.05823, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.558952, "worst_return": -0.464646, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.163889, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.124415, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.5053, "worst_return": -0.521622, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.064145, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.116429, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.751412, "worst_return": -0.625793, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.604603, "energy": 58.903071, "activity_lines": [ 2.952667, 3.067455, 3.280476, 3.414839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.66, "volume": 28247800, "typical_volume": 32134934.95, "trend": 3.524333, "fair_value": 3.727628, "relative_strength": -29.792745, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.745364, "energy": 76.202841, "activity_lines": [ 2.839333, 2.973091, 3.203524, 3.356387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.59, "volume": 37173014, "typical_volume": 31893220.55, "trend": 3.479667, "fair_value": 3.710513, "relative_strength": -31.032454, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.390887, "energy": 76.683855, "activity_lines": [ 2.729333, 2.883091, 3.126762, 3.296108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.75, "volume": 33610012, "typical_volume": 32064670.45, "trend": 3.442333, "fair_value": 3.694615, "relative_strength": -24.872495, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.26181, "energy": 57.077596, "activity_lines": [ 2.715333, 2.839273, 3.071857, 3.249032 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.87, "volume": 33877303, "typical_volume": 32044422.1, "trend": 3.411333, "fair_value": 3.680769, "relative_strength": -24.75244, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.898654, "energy": 49.013259, "activity_lines": [ 2.756, 2.825636, 3.034048, 3.212108 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }