{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a4bc032f-5147-436a-a879-6501761ef340", "symbol": "3122", "name": "Megawin Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -25.847, "architecture_energy": 56.439, "architecture_maturity": 10.812, "architecture_confidence": 79.463, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.32, "rotation_up": 14.87, "upward_expansion": 27.54, "deceleration": 49.3, "rotation_down": 66.69, "downward_expansion": 54.88 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.266667, 26.782727, 29.051428, 29.04043 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 26.0, "trend_reference": 28.42, "distance_from_trend": -0.085151, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 33.064744, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.213664, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -29.935741, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.031746, "excess_performance": -0.409626, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.085151, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.078149, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.213664, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.33749, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.299357, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.268674, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.031746, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.209302, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 335301, "relative_activity": 0.1487, "balance": 0.209302, "dry_up": 0.195235, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.128402, "annualized_volatility": 0.604939, "from_high_reference": -0.385343, "from_low_reference": 0.262136 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 28.42, "fair_value_reference": 33.064744, "structural_low": 21.950001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.030729, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.067626, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.065684, "worst_return": -0.071334, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.033785, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.076365, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.514745, "worst_return": -0.186508, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.297758, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.009023, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.908744, "worst_return": -0.31519, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.198611, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.023339, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.100559, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.118998, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.19715, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.019724, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.104545, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.228663, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.04, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-11", "close": 24.549999, "volume": 437000, "typical_volume": 1302000.0, "trend": 25.932282, "fair_value": 32.307887, "relative_strength": -15.713111, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", 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28.015, "fair_value": 33.065385, "relative_strength": -30.758579, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.686819, "energy": 25.80752, "activity_lines": [ 27.779999, 29.144545, 30.47619, 29.649785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.950001, "volume": 713506, "typical_volume": 2301507.75, "trend": 28.121667, "fair_value": 33.057692, "relative_strength": -33.267515, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.589233, "energy": 49.096896, "activity_lines": [ 26.16, 27.978181, 29.893333, 29.387527 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.0, "volume": 301002, "typical_volume": 2255125.2, "trend": 28.258333, "fair_value": 33.05609, "relative_strength": -31.098911, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.45381, "energy": 59.183426, "activity_lines": [ 25.313333, 27.219091, 29.418333, 29.186129 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 26.0, "volume": 335301, "typical_volume": 2254878.95, "trend": 28.42, "fair_value": 33.064744, "relative_strength": -29.935741, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.847404, "energy": 56.438562, "activity_lines": [ 25.266667, 26.782727, 29.051428, 29.04043 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }