{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a4bd5170-4332-422b-930b-099a367c994c", "symbol": "MVEU", "name": "iShares Edge MSCI Europe Minimum Volatility UCITS ETF EUR (Acc)", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 67.517, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 79.92, "architecture_energy": 76.893, "architecture_maturity": 35.659, "architecture_confidence": 66.636, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.85, "rotation_up": 79.16, "upward_expansion": 93.88, "deceleration": 40.91, "rotation_down": 12.01, "downward_expansion": 15.88 }, "activity_lines": [ 75.062666, 74.524908, 73.672381, 73.17157 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 75.779999, "trend_reference": 72.465334, "distance_from_trend": 0.045741, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 63.467372, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.193999, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -7.609887, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.064027, "excess_performance": -0.106865, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.045741, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029089, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.193999, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043129, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.076099, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015564, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.064027, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.639375, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 33947, "relative_activity": 2.468469, "balance": 5.639375, "dry_up": 2.388355, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.016069, "annualized_volatility": 0.1136, "from_high_reference": -0.001449, "from_low_reference": 0.159425 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 72.465334, "fair_value_reference": 63.467372, "structural_low": 68.440002, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": 0.004802, "positive_rate": 0.611111, "directional_follow_through": 0.611111, "median_excess_return": -0.003727, "regime_survival": 0.805556, "best_return": 0.07567, "worst_return": -0.064585, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.026939, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.025116, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.068004, "worst_return": -0.052555, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.039442, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.015816, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.076501, "worst_return": -0.084489, "sufficient": true }, { 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72.739714, 72.377699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 74.639999, "volume": 11452, "typical_volume": 9313.55, "trend": 71.823667, "fair_value": 63.048846, "relative_strength": -6.469986, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.04062, "energy": 72.134749, "activity_lines": [ 74.115999, 73.614909, 72.947714, 72.573505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 74.5, "volume": 11425, "typical_volume": 9460.0, "trend": 72.034334, "fair_value": 63.178846, "relative_strength": -6.26358, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.601212, "energy": 70.618151, "activity_lines": [ 74.35, 73.855818, 73.142333, 72.746172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 75.099998, "volume": 74557, "typical_volume": 12592.65, "trend": 72.252, "fair_value": 63.321923, "relative_strength": -5.939896, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.492346, "energy": 66.94867, "activity_lines": [ 74.646666, 74.146908, 73.382238, 72.943957 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 75.779999, "volume": 33947, "typical_volume": 13752.25, "trend": 72.465334, "fair_value": 63.467372, "relative_strength": -7.609887, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.919833, "energy": 76.893097, "activity_lines": [ 75.062666, 74.524908, 73.672381, 73.17157 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }