{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a4cc1bd4-8bc2-44ae-905e-d197dc0925d1", "symbol": "000166", "name": "Shenwan Hongyuan Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -14.399, "architecture_energy": 13.66, "architecture_maturity": 28.779, "architecture_confidence": 50.064, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.95, "rotation_up": 34.59, "upward_expansion": 27.33, "deceleration": 46.83, "rotation_down": 21.55, "downward_expansion": 46.99 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.603333, 4.561273, 4.547, 4.611118 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 4.54, "trend_reference": 4.734, "distance_from_trend": -0.04098, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.763732, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.046966, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.265695, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.104536, "excess_performance": -0.111936, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.04098, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050141, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.046966, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.042195, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.122657, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.12288, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.104536, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.524812, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 389917778, "relative_activity": 1.078815, "balance": 0.524812, "dry_up": 1.229049, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.046425, "annualized_volatility": 0.15346, "from_high_reference": -0.209251, "from_low_reference": 0.053364 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.734, "fair_value_reference": 4.763732, "structural_low": 4.31, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.008811, "positive_rate": 0.421053, "directional_follow_through": 0.421053, "median_excess_return": 4.8e-05, "regime_survival": 0.368421, "best_return": 0.264775, "worst_return": -0.092843, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.001097, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.01068, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.279995, "worst_return": -0.061896, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.009643, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.050299, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.228999, "worst_return": -0.15357, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.006096, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.110034, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.18983, "worst_return": -0.080693, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.030769, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.076787, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.040619, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.081024, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.049702, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.003809, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.030939, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.032882, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.053114, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.06743, "energy": 22.580528, "activity_lines": [ 4.522, 4.485636, 4.541714, 4.641257 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.64, "volume": 501237321, "typical_volume": 363966809.25, "trend": 4.779333, "fair_value": 4.762418, "relative_strength": -8.253693, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.067993, "energy": 19.453127, "activity_lines": [ 4.571333, 4.516727, 4.543857, 4.630968 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.69, "volume": 357503946, "typical_volume": 362888564.35, "trend": 4.758333, "fair_value": 4.763433, "relative_strength": -5.261562, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -5.507616, "energy": 12.038671, "activity_lines": [ 4.622, 4.555091, 4.552, 4.625204 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.54, "volume": 389917778, "typical_volume": 361431446.6, "trend": 4.734, "fair_value": 4.763732, "relative_strength": -12.265695, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -14.398971, "energy": 13.660448, "activity_lines": [ 4.603333, 4.561273, 4.547, 4.611118 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }