{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a4cc9061-e1cf-4296-bf90-719a3ac0b421", "symbol": "ALAGP", "name": "Agripower France Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 Anonyme", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -70.767, "architecture_energy": 77.706, "architecture_maturity": 16.554, "architecture_confidence": 93.791, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.3, "rotation_up": 15.53, "upward_expansion": 18.07, "deceleration": 38.85, "rotation_down": 73.71, "downward_expansion": 96.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.9504, 0.976891, 1.0554, 1.09389 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.94, "trend_reference": 1.114967, "distance_from_trend": -0.156925, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.17416, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.199428, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.097902, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.073892, "excess_performance": -0.127203, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.156925, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008448, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.199428, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.057021, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.190979, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.31391, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.073892, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.456481, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15080, "relative_activity": 0.189507, "balance": 0.456481, "dry_up": 0.532162, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.078478, "annualized_volatility": 0.358326, "from_high_reference": -0.428571, "from_low_reference": 0.253333 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.114967, "fair_value_reference": 1.17416, "structural_low": 0.884, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": -0.033426, "positive_rate": 0.424242, "directional_follow_through": 0.575758, "median_excess_return": -0.024952, "regime_survival": 0.787879, "best_return": 0.351648, "worst_return": -0.341772, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.04792, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.095366, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.272152, "worst_return": -0.511076, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.060241, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.040498, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.103831, "worst_return": -0.62381, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.138298, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.069159, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.068548, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.072727, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.004065, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "New", 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"typical_volume": 110434.05, "trend": 1.1346, "fair_value": 1.319712, "relative_strength": -4.129602, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -16.588568, "energy": 23.739842, "activity_lines": [ 1.127333, 1.162273, 1.188738, 1.168172 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 0.992, "volume": 56843, "typical_volume": 111454.7, "trend": 1.134467, "fair_value": 1.296648, "relative_strength": -13.715214, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -40.475153, "energy": 56.048966, "activity_lines": [ 1.078333, 1.126273, 1.171048, 1.158972 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 0.976, "volume": 31036, "typical_volume": 107523.2, "trend": 1.133933, "fair_value": 1.274378, "relative_strength": -16.072931, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -41.321592, "energy": 63.021744, "activity_lines": [ 1.0362, 1.091782, 1.151943, 1.148748 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.98, "volume": 19107, "typical_volume": 107191.0, "trend": 1.131267, "fair_value": 1.251045, "relative_strength": -13.507327, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -48.18249, "energy": 71.534658, "activity_lines": [ 1.009, 1.063182, 1.13369, 1.138817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.96, "volume": 77902, "typical_volume": 110272.3, "trend": 1.1266, "fair_value": 1.226494, "relative_strength": -14.879029, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -47.412051, "energy": 74.106055, "activity_lines": [ 0.9828, 1.035945, 1.113771, 1.127768 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.968, "volume": 40924, "typical_volume": 104682.15, "trend": 1.124867, "fair_value": 1.203148, "relative_strength": -14.077484, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.287344, "energy": 80.044699, "activity_lines": [ 0.970933, 1.015527, 1.095019, 1.117535 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.938, "volume": 35481, "typical_volume": 99671.0, "trend": 1.119633, "fair_value": 1.188391, "relative_strength": -17.713105, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.179681, "energy": 83.012814, "activity_lines": [ 0.958533, 0.993873, 1.074419, 1.10548 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.94, "volume": 15080, "typical_volume": 79574.95, "trend": 1.114967, "fair_value": 1.17416, "relative_strength": -19.097902, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.76667, "energy": 77.706164, "activity_lines": [ 0.9504, 0.976891, 1.0554, 1.09389 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }