{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a4ce8d2a-90eb-430d-bf3f-e8a853eba4eb", "symbol": "002861", "name": "YingTong Telecommunication Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -46.874, "architecture_energy": 46.485, "architecture_maturity": 39.106, "architecture_confidence": 60.137, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.04, "rotation_up": 11.36, "upward_expansion": 15.58, "deceleration": 61.14, "rotation_down": 70.73, "downward_expansion": 69.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.96, 17.591273, 17.803953, 17.753032 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 16.24, "trend_reference": 17.941, "distance_from_trend": -0.094811, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.093554, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.1523, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.172157, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.187594, "excess_performance": -0.194994, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.094811, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020403, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.1523, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.175496, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.131722, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01932, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.187594, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.799755, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 32748013, "relative_activity": 1.239357, "balance": 0.799755, "dry_up": 1.476438, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.126089, "annualized_volatility": 0.576383, "from_high_reference": -0.296665, "from_low_reference": 0.16 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.941, "fair_value_reference": 14.093554, "structural_low": 14.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.107362, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.118341, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.468705, "worst_return": -0.002671, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.101696, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.067148, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.395924, "worst_return": -0.0401, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.377583, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.325006, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.644765, "worst_return": -0.014202, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.013367, 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"orange", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.18374, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.217826, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.100058, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.018816, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.12659, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.123744, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.051152, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.045147, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.131704, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-07-28", "close": 11.297292, "volume": 10165200, "typical_volume": 14857824.8, "trend": 11.128549, "fair_value": 12.848629, "relative_strength": 5.818232, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 22.49771, "energy": 31.082368, 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"relative_strength": 6.308631, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.638411, "energy": 81.749475, "activity_lines": [ 21.074, 19.938546, 18.590524, 18.397699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 16.780001, "volume": 34537820, "typical_volume": 25970396.2, "trend": 18.233667, "fair_value": 14.017459, "relative_strength": -7.220096, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.581747, "energy": 51.744806, "activity_lines": [ 19.869334, 19.493637, 18.474238, 18.298559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.07, "volume": 47763732, "typical_volume": 26192393.75, "trend": 18.109333, "fair_value": 14.042144, "relative_strength": -16.808543, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.511103, "energy": 13.76542, "activity_lines": [ 18.162, 18.758182, 18.209476, 18.094452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.57, "volume": 41000475, "typical_volume": 26162304.25, "trend": 17.992667, "fair_value": 14.061745, "relative_strength": -18.125494, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.523514, "energy": 43.632505, "activity_lines": [ 16.53, 17.984546, 17.918048, 17.866108 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.24, "volume": 32748013, "typical_volume": 26423397.25, "trend": 17.941, "fair_value": 14.093554, "relative_strength": -13.172157, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.873538, "energy": 46.48506, "activity_lines": [ 15.96, 17.591273, 17.803953, 17.753032 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }