{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a4d4f6b3-7472-4cb4-8840-077420954f0d", "symbol": "XTG", "name": "Xtra-Gold Resources Corp.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -46.613, "architecture_energy": 35.836, "architecture_maturity": 72.639, "architecture_confidence": 90.632, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.23, "rotation_up": 26.44, "upward_expansion": 17.04, "deceleration": 46.94, "rotation_down": 39.64, "downward_expansion": 67.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.508, 2.48, 2.631333, 2.756753 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 2.73, "trend_reference": 2.922, "distance_from_trend": -0.065708, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.974103, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.382907, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.705837, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.119355, "excess_performance": -0.239776, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.065708, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.090853, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.382907, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.318752, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.187058, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.164381, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.119355, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.43007, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 35800, "relative_activity": 1.000699, "balance": 0.43007, "dry_up": 0.728861, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.084531, "annualized_volatility": 0.381716, "from_high_reference": -0.264151, "from_low_reference": 0.224215 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.922, "fair_value_reference": 1.974103, "structural_low": 2.25, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.00601, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.009873, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.37931, "worst_return": -0.090909, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.034483, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.055442, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.315789, "worst_return": -0.146067, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.01523, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.00493, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.333333, "worst_return": -0.089109, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"color": "green", "start": "2023-11-10", "end": "2024-01-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.010638, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-02-02", "end": "2024-03-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.113402, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-03-15", "end": "2024-06-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.070796, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.131148, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.430657, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Established", 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"relative_strength": -26.910988, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.523628, "energy": 90.485169, "activity_lines": [ 2.478667, 2.628909, 2.82519, 2.928968 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 2.37, "volume": 53200, "typical_volume": 42910.0, "trend": 3.032333, "fair_value": 1.931603, "relative_strength": -27.796481, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.930609, "energy": 88.240768, "activity_lines": [ 2.430667, 2.556364, 2.770429, 2.884108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.41, "volume": 30200, "typical_volume": 43110.0, "trend": 2.997, "fair_value": 1.941667, "relative_strength": -26.383885, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.977045, "energy": 80.294756, "activity_lines": [ 2.409333, 2.505455, 2.722381, 2.843957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.46, "volume": 14000, "typical_volume": 35065.0, "trend": 2.963667, "fair_value": 1.951987, "relative_strength": -24.973988, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.30939, "energy": 59.640631, "activity_lines": [ 2.416, 2.476364, 2.682619, 2.809312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.35, "volume": 24300, "typical_volume": 35310.0, "trend": 2.931, "fair_value": 1.961987, "relative_strength": -27.806508, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.713728, "energy": 57.960812, "activity_lines": [ 2.397333, 2.437636, 2.636857, 2.76972 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.73, "volume": 35800, "typical_volume": 35775.0, "trend": 2.922, "fair_value": 1.974103, "relative_strength": -18.705837, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.61268, "energy": 35.836258, "activity_lines": [ 2.508, 2.48, 2.631333, 2.756753 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }