{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a4e4eab9-b944-4d8e-921c-357dfd044363", "symbol": "WAVE", "name": "Eco Wave Power Global AB ADR", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 1.893, "architecture_energy": 13.102, "architecture_maturity": 24.77, "architecture_confidence": 67.474, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.87, "rotation_up": 20.34, "upward_expansion": 49.7, "deceleration": 81.75, "rotation_down": 38.02, "downward_expansion": 27.7 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.58, 8.056307, 8.078877, 7.613205 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 6.94, "trend_reference": 6.9226, "distance_from_trend": 0.002514, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.62871, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.232965, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.752976, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.508696, "excess_performance": 0.321242, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.002514, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.085966, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.232965, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.269943, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.14753, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.102697, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.508696, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.499329, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 56401, "relative_activity": 0.220554, "balance": 3.499329, "dry_up": 0.416555, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.192552, "annualized_volatility": 0.534991, "from_high_reference": -0.361546, "from_low_reference": 0.535398 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.9226, "fair_value_reference": 5.62871, "structural_low": 4.5601, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.154806, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.120066, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.291683, "worst_return": -0.340122, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.353308, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.36371, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.486667, "worst_return": -0.391753, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.329685, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.474545, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": -0.11985, "worst_return": -0.539519, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.900344, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.554973, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.900344, "worst_return": 0.900344, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.319703, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 1.856749, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.19214, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.0176, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.460863, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.043281, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.154639, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.148564, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.095009, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.015041, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.175, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.279215, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.172336, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 2.26, "volume": 47321, "typical_volume": 674816.3, "trend": 2.929557, "fair_value": 4.900767, "relative_strength": -43.113085, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established 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64.218501, "energy": 41.332262, "activity_lines": [ 8.729793, 8.594887, 7.845192, 7.235389 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 8.92, "volume": 136514, "typical_volume": 245890.35, "trend": 6.697503, "fair_value": 5.496787, "relative_strength": 6.748991, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.68057, "energy": 41.844651, "activity_lines": [ 8.855193, 8.693051, 8.016821, 7.38398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 8.71, "volume": 141416, "typical_volume": 250977.15, "trend": 6.778947, "fair_value": 5.534799, "relative_strength": 8.78939, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.324017, "energy": 41.482653, "activity_lines": [ 8.89326, 8.715942, 8.149783, 7.513818 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.82, "volume": 90509, "typical_volume": 253084.25, "trend": 6.848947, "fair_value": 5.568517, "relative_strength": 0.055979, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.027682, "energy": 27.738465, "activity_lines": [ 8.556, 8.559562, 8.180269, 7.580983 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.3, "volume": 137767, "typical_volume": 257978.3, "trend": 6.891613, "fair_value": 5.599351, "relative_strength": -6.429965, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.673597, "energy": 15.588578, "activity_lines": [ 8.066667, 8.327016, 8.150073, 7.610083 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.94, "volume": 56401, "typical_volume": 255724.05, "trend": 6.9226, "fair_value": 5.62871, "relative_strength": -14.752976, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 1.892917, "energy": 13.10226, "activity_lines": [ 7.58, 8.056307, 8.078877, 7.613205 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }