{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a4ed868a-954d-4686-9761-2827de1a1e91", "symbol": "TMUS", "name": "T-Mobile US Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.493, "architecture_energy": 35.491, "architecture_maturity": 39.569, "architecture_confidence": 94.378, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.76, "rotation_up": 20.42, "upward_expansion": 4.02, "deceleration": 50.01, "rotation_down": 50.98, "downward_expansion": 77.35 }, "activity_lines": [ 179.302, 181.078364, 184.075519, 188.870211 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 177.19, "trend_reference": 193.618005, "distance_from_trend": -0.084848, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 195.277119, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.092623, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.830792, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.093212, "excess_performance": -0.280666, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.084848, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.033525, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.092623, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.101519, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.248308, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018069, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.093212, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.770195, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 25009175, "relative_activity": 0.926184, "balance": 0.770195, "dry_up": 0.93879, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.073288, "annualized_volatility": 0.291373, "from_high_reference": -0.309902, "from_low_reference": 0.0696 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 193.618005, "fair_value_reference": 195.277119, "structural_low": 165.66, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.004986, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.013507, "regime_survival": 0.722222, "best_return": 0.14707, "worst_return": -0.094233, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.028828, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.059057, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.265794, "worst_return": -0.130487, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.007354, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.080054, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.165544, "worst_return": -0.161572, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.54612, "energy": 23.348882, "activity_lines": [ 186.145333, 185.223753, 188.335442, 192.437069 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 180.09, "volume": 27299590, "typical_volume": 26967528.1, "trend": 195.158478, "fair_value": 194.708087, "relative_strength": -20.882694, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.817877, "energy": 26.402079, "activity_lines": [ 184.714667, 184.307531, 187.044886, 191.42429 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 172.71, "volume": 31279391, "typical_volume": 27536092.0, "trend": 194.329744, "fair_value": 194.989712, "relative_strength": -23.786594, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.812411, "energy": 35.501249, "activity_lines": [ 180.929333, 182.124545, 185.243288, 189.976001 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 177.19, "volume": 25009175, "typical_volume": 27002384.65, "trend": 193.618005, "fair_value": 195.277119, "relative_strength": -24.830792, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.493104, "energy": 35.491089, "activity_lines": [ 179.302, 181.078364, 184.075519, 188.870211 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }