{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a4f105ab-957b-484e-8207-ae0c8b5a2c1b", "symbol": "H", "name": "Hyatt Hotels Corporation", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 90.174, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 27.296, "architecture_energy": 22.817, "architecture_maturity": 62.388, "architecture_confidence": 81.974, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.58, "rotation_up": 18.82, "upward_expansion": 53.0, "deceleration": 93.84, "rotation_down": 35.67, "downward_expansion": 21.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 181.241333, 186.677091, 183.788805, 177.25628 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 177.71, "trend_reference": 170.489551, "distance_from_trend": 0.042351, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 145.459051, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.221718, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.099899, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.093043, "excess_performance": -0.032582, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.042351, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.061285, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.221718, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020215, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.020999, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014567, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.093043, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.267181, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4886824, "relative_activity": 1.19975, "balance": 1.267181, "dry_up": 1.118142, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.072253, "annualized_volatility": 0.323189, "from_high_reference": -0.140917, "from_low_reference": 0.327986 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 170.489551, "fair_value_reference": 145.459051, "structural_low": 137.416345, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.006052, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.01403, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.155325, "worst_return": -0.156958, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.070829, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.004918, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.135371, "worst_return": -0.091617, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.195181, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.077144, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.215788, "worst_return": -0.034305, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.08642, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.129519, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.062757, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.00722, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.136512, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.156958, 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"volume": 6270566, "typical_volume": 4014192.9, "trend": 170.162331, "fair_value": 145.062412, "relative_strength": -0.621299, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.073599, "energy": 20.870421, "activity_lines": [ 184.288667, 189.053636, 183.533722, 176.769334 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 177.71, "volume": 4886824, "typical_volume": 4073201.15, "trend": 170.489551, "fair_value": 145.459051, "relative_strength": -2.099899, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.296191, "energy": 22.817129, "activity_lines": [ 181.241333, 186.677091, 183.788805, 177.25628 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }