{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a4f61f5c-1bfb-407e-97a0-c30a9e373244", "symbol": "SLR", "name": "Solaria Energ\u00eda y Medio Ambiente, S.A.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 71.024, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -61.491, "architecture_energy": 85.861, "architecture_maturity": 27.071, "architecture_confidence": 71.764, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.03, "rotation_up": 16.08, "upward_expansion": 27.97, "deceleration": 43.01, "rotation_down": 84.2, "downward_expansion": 71.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.130334, 18.467546, 20.498929, 21.006742 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 15.985, "trend_reference": 20.988333, "distance_from_trend": -0.238386, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 13.498647, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.184193, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -28.192977, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.101209, "excess_performance": -0.275456, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.238386, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.047775, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.184193, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.688569, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.28193, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.628667, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.101209, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 603.2, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 603.2, "dry_up": 0.0, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.080893, "annualized_volatility": 0.460947, "from_high_reference": -0.375098, "from_low_reference": 0.563325 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.988333, "fair_value_reference": 13.498647, "structural_low": 15.85, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.111554, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.09746, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.111554, "worst_return": -0.111554, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.24751, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.320644, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.24751, "worst_return": -0.24751, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.313944, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.447466, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.313944, "worst_return": -0.313944, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.466135, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.163863, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.466135, "worst_return": 0.466135, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.041703, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.064048, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.01494, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.159641, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.195677, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.016602, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.13576, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.620245, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.16918, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.098421, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": 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-21.241105, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -58.02012, "energy": 84.64117, "activity_lines": [ 17.907, 19.286364, 21.080762, 21.33314 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.985, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 208.9, "trend": 20.988333, "fair_value": 13.498647, "relative_strength": -28.192977, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -61.490546, "energy": 85.860572, "activity_lines": [ 17.130334, 18.467546, 20.498929, 21.006742 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }