{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a4f8cb93-4ca3-4434-aa04-5d56bacc16ee", "symbol": "1305", "name": "China General Plastics Corporation", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 92.69, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.695, "architecture_energy": 65.608, "architecture_maturity": 10.9, "architecture_confidence": 90.509, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.1, "rotation_up": 11.59, "upward_expansion": 14.86, "deceleration": 37.43, "rotation_down": 69.55, "downward_expansion": 90.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.730026, 12.23937, 12.654001, 13.101935 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 11.8, "trend_reference": 13.277034, "distance_from_trend": -0.111247, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 15.077564, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.21738, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -32.054423, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.03423, "excess_performance": -0.407142, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.111247, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03941, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.21738, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002943, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.320544, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028835, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.03423, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.703302, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6143223, "relative_activity": 0.197817, "balance": 0.703302, "dry_up": 0.33221, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.11115, "annualized_volatility": 0.565947, "from_high_reference": -0.408276, "from_low_reference": 0.154723 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.277034, "fair_value_reference": 15.077564, "structural_low": 10.6, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": -0.019512, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.025312, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.219807, "worst_return": -0.146032, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.039528, "positive_rate": 0.307692, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.119159, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.362245, "worst_return": -0.267692, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.153247, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.146382, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.155017, "worst_return": -0.303279, "sufficient": 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"balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -15.402103, "energy": 9.906898, "activity_lines": [ 13.112598, 13.010379, 13.458898, 13.486406 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.45, "volume": 13717544, "typical_volume": 48169354.9, "trend": 13.215079, "fair_value": 15.292687, "relative_strength": -27.161651, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.878779, "energy": 14.186411, "activity_lines": [ 12.860866, 12.936206, 13.312092, 13.44003 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.1, "volume": 15626224, "typical_volume": 44111027.85, "trend": 13.222953, "fair_value": 15.227462, "relative_strength": -33.513763, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -45.331025, "energy": 50.917014, "activity_lines": [ 12.205512, 12.615698, 13.040028, 13.303574 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.55, "volume": 5780096, "typical_volume": 39303649.65, "trend": 13.252441, "fair_value": 15.158332, "relative_strength": -31.783973, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.215914, "energy": 66.396382, "activity_lines": [ 11.82, 12.398869, 12.822925, 13.195641 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 11.8, "volume": 6143223, "typical_volume": 31055016.0, "trend": 13.277034, "fair_value": 15.077564, "relative_strength": -32.054423, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.694628, "energy": 65.608277, "activity_lines": [ 11.730026, 12.23937, 12.654001, 13.101935 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }