{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a4fa8035-608d-4b9f-ac0e-ba9cc0bb9913", "symbol": "301197", "name": "Hebei Gongda Keya Technology Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 63.08, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -21.835, "architecture_energy": 50.977, "architecture_maturity": 7.035, "architecture_confidence": 63.535, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.03, "rotation_up": 17.03, "upward_expansion": 27.51, "deceleration": 47.68, "rotation_down": 63.9, "downward_expansion": 50.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.787816, 25.164266, 27.540319, 27.085611 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 24.959999, "trend_reference": 25.944408, "distance_from_trend": -0.037943, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 18.490384, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.349891, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 3.977965, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.228951, "excess_performance": 0.221552, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.037943, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.090391, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.349891, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.473817, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.03978, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.234819, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.228951, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.048023, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 23244680, "relative_activity": 1.008162, "balance": 1.048023, "dry_up": 0.996833, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.193941, "annualized_volatility": 0.782969, "from_high_reference": -0.40072, "from_low_reference": 0.405405 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.944408, "fair_value_reference": 18.490384, "structural_low": 17.76, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, 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"stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.910047, "energy": 28.671318, "activity_lines": [ 31.089288, 31.630277, 29.549462, 27.586127 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 33.0378, "volume": 4687698, "typical_volume": 22064618.0, "trend": 25.543166, "fair_value": 18.513834, "relative_strength": 23.600704, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.934977, "energy": 31.768549, "activity_lines": [ 31.892076, 31.89411, 30.08498, 28.094399 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 24.137253, "volume": 40420114, "typical_volume": 23460883.7, "trend": 25.639074, "fair_value": 18.514512, "relative_strength": -5.775321, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 16.904198, "energy": 11.835165, "activity_lines": [ 29.517494, 30.442611, 29.7196, 28.003695 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 20.889999, "volume": 22423929, "typical_volume": 23400079.45, "trend": 25.704408, "fair_value": 18.496456, "relative_strength": -9.802554, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -11.094136, "energy": 18.096074, "activity_lines": [ 26.482012, 28.513661, 29.033398, 27.697303 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 20.02, "volume": 19164335, "typical_volume": 22504436.95, "trend": 25.709741, "fair_value": 18.480958, "relative_strength": -13.562781, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.991529, "energy": 40.889415, "activity_lines": [ 23.670363, 26.647075, 28.282531, 27.330567 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.76, "volume": 27100940, "typical_volume": 22646926.1, "trend": 25.807074, "fair_value": 18.47615, "relative_strength": -0.169844, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.590814, "energy": 48.022187, "activity_lines": [ 22.524154, 25.607761, 27.805425, 27.140261 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.959999, "volume": 23244680, "typical_volume": 23056494.1, "trend": 25.944408, "fair_value": 18.490384, "relative_strength": 3.977965, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.83484, "energy": 50.976962, "activity_lines": [ 22.787816, 25.164266, 27.540319, 27.085611 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }