{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a4fd8a11-892b-4fb4-bf8b-13f6e0320b43", "symbol": "SGA", "name": "Saga Communications Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -31.967, "architecture_energy": 25.298, "architecture_maturity": 72.581, "architecture_confidence": 78.394, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.2, "rotation_up": 29.84, "upward_expansion": 23.03, "deceleration": 43.86, "rotation_down": 26.86, "downward_expansion": 57.03 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.257, 9.115273, 9.413988, 9.844068 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 10.04, "trend_reference": 10.303504, "distance_from_trend": -0.025574, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.856901, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.219096, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.050421, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.070631, "excess_performance": -0.258085, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.025574, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.061589, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.219096, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011225, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.190504, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038806, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.070631, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.809147, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 58903, "relative_activity": 0.906658, "balance": 0.809147, "dry_up": 1.066865, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.069475, "annualized_volatility": 0.310018, "from_high_reference": -0.188863, "from_low_reference": 0.218861 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.303504, "fair_value_reference": 12.856901, "structural_low": 8.2372, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.01012, "positive_rate": 0.526316, "directional_follow_through": 0.473684, "median_excess_return": -0.024416, "regime_survival": 0.789474, "best_return": 0.125326, "worst_return": -0.109685, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.005853, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.077294, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.372106, "worst_return": -0.149872, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.036264, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.131199, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.143217, "worst_return": -0.235727, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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-30.195933, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.979418, "energy": 58.07823, "activity_lines": [ 8.971333, 9.100356, 9.80365, 10.17149 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.06, "volume": 50768, "typical_volume": 60972.8, "trend": 10.466132, "fair_value": 12.978924, "relative_strength": -26.066962, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.222295, "energy": 50.43485, "activity_lines": [ 9.008, 9.051325, 9.679758, 10.076962 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.575, "volume": 117430, "typical_volume": 65314.95, "trend": 10.388047, "fair_value": 12.934209, "relative_strength": -28.147134, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.155891, "energy": 51.73728, "activity_lines": [ 8.890333, 8.941818, 9.521016, 9.954953 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.95, "volume": 50144, "typical_volume": 65423.55, "trend": 10.320668, "fair_value": 12.891758, "relative_strength": -24.734089, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.408495, "energy": 46.050055, "activity_lines": [ 8.900667, 8.923727, 9.410478, 9.862176 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.04, "volume": 58903, "typical_volume": 64967.2, "trend": 10.303504, "fair_value": 12.856901, "relative_strength": -19.050421, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.96667, "energy": 25.298248, "activity_lines": [ 9.257, 9.115273, 9.413988, 9.844068 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }