{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a5047627-7cc0-420b-b5ca-1d5b95319613", "symbol": "SPGP", "name": "iShares Gold Producers UCITS ETF USD (Acc)", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 88.576, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -26.922, "architecture_energy": 24.288, "architecture_maturity": 41.881, "architecture_confidence": 54.722, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.03, "rotation_up": 27.12, "upward_expansion": 17.37, "deceleration": 62.59, "rotation_down": 35.84, "downward_expansion": 65.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 2742.466667, 2713.718182, 2814.466667, 2927.045161 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 3097.0, "trend_reference": 3079.05, "distance_from_trend": 0.00583, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1832.060448, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.690446, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.635068, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.045903, "excess_performance": -0.097138, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.00583, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011313, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.690446, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.183224, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.006351, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.152238, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.045903, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.716504, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 400610, "relative_activity": 1.365491, "balance": 0.716504, "dry_up": 0.823237, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.082748, "annualized_volatility": 0.54846, "from_high_reference": -0.243527, "from_low_reference": 0.634732 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3079.05, "fair_value_reference": 1832.060448, "structural_low": 2400.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.001678, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.01804, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.174449, "worst_return": -0.116333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.047027, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.041361, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.300266, "worst_return": -0.101222, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.261742, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.197158, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.411968, "worst_return": -0.093067, "sufficient": false }, { 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"modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.364629, "energy": 68.30959, "activity_lines": [ 2706.666667, 2777.636364, 2926.364286, 3033.590323 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2443.5, "volume": 227303, "typical_volume": 407208.45, "trend": 3102.916667, "fair_value": 1798.691859, "relative_strength": -18.579019, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.116577, "energy": 75.455633, "activity_lines": [ 2612.5, 2702.727273, 2867.297619, 2989.882796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2643.0, "volume": 192818, "typical_volume": 371289.85, "trend": 3089.516667, "fair_value": 1808.845705, "relative_strength": -13.314865, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.908331, "energy": 63.052248, "activity_lines": [ 2605.066667, 2677.209091, 2834.138095, 2960.210753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2559.0, "volume": 145359, "typical_volume": 345709.45, "trend": 3080.55, "fair_value": 1818.731923, "relative_strength": -17.285404, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.560525, "energy": 64.473447, "activity_lines": [ 2578.766667, 2643.327273, 2796.959524, 2925.983871 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3097.0, "volume": 400610, "typical_volume": 293381.55, "trend": 3079.05, "fair_value": 1832.060448, "relative_strength": -0.635068, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.921525, "energy": 24.288011, "activity_lines": [ 2742.466667, 2713.718182, 2814.466667, 2927.045161 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }