{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a505b5b3-0a89-4d8e-ac89-256ace5e6c46", "symbol": "300402", "name": "Nanjing Baose Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.231, "architecture_energy": 59.744, "architecture_maturity": 59.572, "architecture_confidence": 93.362, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.88, "rotation_up": 22.17, "upward_expansion": 10.31, "deceleration": 57.97, "rotation_down": 59.98, "downward_expansion": 83.64 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.120667, 14.500545, 15.676714, 16.857742 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 14.92, "trend_reference": 18.568333, "distance_from_trend": -0.196481, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.210477, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.133086, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.117342, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.320273, "excess_performance": -0.327673, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.196481, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.108634, "read": "Falling" 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"structural_low": 12.48, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.014205, "positive_rate": 0.391304, "directional_follow_through": 0.608696, "median_excess_return": 0.007222, "regime_survival": 0.73913, "best_return": 0.296014, "worst_return": -0.176433, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.026769, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.026561, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.332496, "worst_return": -0.224532, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.051326, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.072255, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.731993, "worst_return": -0.308637, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -85.425477, "energy": 90.875903, "activity_lines": [ 14.308667, 15.249273, 16.578667, 17.80542 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.39, "volume": 16818614, "typical_volume": 16274378.6, "trend": 19.045334, "fair_value": 17.287415, "relative_strength": -31.495857, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.648951, "energy": 86.948595, "activity_lines": [ 13.797333, 14.779455, 16.164333, 17.423118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.15, "volume": 14542864, "typical_volume": 15365777.65, "trend": 18.788, "fair_value": 17.244672, "relative_strength": -25.855777, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.156565, "energy": 72.902253, "activity_lines": [ 13.807333, 14.541455, 15.866857, 17.10729 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.92, "volume": 19214967, "typical_volume": 15162022.7, "trend": 18.568333, "fair_value": 17.210477, "relative_strength": -25.117342, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.23065, "energy": 59.743536, "activity_lines": [ 14.120667, 14.500545, 15.676714, 16.857742 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }