{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a5071ccf-af2c-4738-9755-d22350e47ed0", "symbol": "SPXL", "name": "State Street SPDR S&P 500 UCITS ETF USD Acc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 79.043, "architecture_energy": 52.771, "architecture_maturity": 86.874, "architecture_confidence": 66.032, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.47, "rotation_up": 47.34, "upward_expansion": 79.06, "deceleration": 71.35, "rotation_down": 28.96, "downward_expansion": 8.06 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.898267, 13.871491, 13.737914, 13.464011 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 14.214, "trend_reference": 13.134833, "distance_from_trend": 0.082161, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.27715, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.260425, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.651415, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.139673, "excess_performance": 0.088438, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.082161, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033976, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.260425, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046384, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.026514, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01614, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.139673, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.039937, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1419142, "relative_activity": 0.896061, "balance": 2.039937, "dry_up": 1.10326, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.020676, "annualized_volatility": 0.122658, "from_high_reference": -0.006431, "from_low_reference": 0.231481 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.134833, "fair_value_reference": 11.27715, "structural_low": 11.86, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.007885, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.005123, "regime_survival": 0.9, "best_return": 0.057847, "worst_return": -0.022571, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.039275, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.009374, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.052398, "worst_return": 0.019624, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.07305, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.073441, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.07305, "worst_return": 0.07305, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, 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"stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.21057, "energy": 49.803066, "activity_lines": [ 13.8172, 13.833055, 13.621429, 13.352123 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.654, "volume": 2363499, "typical_volume": 1600289.25, "trend": 13.086367, "fair_value": 11.256756, "relative_strength": -1.052742, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.915674, "energy": 38.881622, "activity_lines": [ 13.759733, 13.800327, 13.656019, 13.39126 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.214, "volume": 1419142, "typical_volume": 1583756.9, "trend": 13.134833, "fair_value": 11.27715, "relative_strength": 2.651415, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.043435, "energy": 52.770767, "activity_lines": [ 13.898267, 13.871491, 13.737914, 13.464011 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }