{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a5099296-75b7-485f-8885-18864536f0f9", "symbol": "600860", "name": "Beijing Jingcheng Machinery Electric Company Limited", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.032, "architecture_energy": 63.867, "architecture_maturity": 77.465, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.21, "rotation_up": 27.43, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 59.49, "rotation_down": 53.1, "downward_expansion": 83.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.946, 8.099091, 8.841095, 9.739011 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 8.26, "trend_reference": 10.881333, "distance_from_trend": -0.240902, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.112244, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.256676, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -28.132159, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.320724, "excess_performance": -0.27752, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.240902, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.112452, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.256676, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.222857, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.281322, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.09324, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.320724, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.198583, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 23912209, "relative_activity": 0.638843, "balance": 0.198583, "dry_up": 0.707858, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.088098, "annualized_volatility": 0.52879, "from_high_reference": -0.501809, "from_low_reference": 0.152022 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.881333, "fair_value_reference": 11.112244, "structural_low": 7.17, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.029703, "positive_rate": 0.434783, "directional_follow_through": 0.565217, "median_excess_return": -0.029241, "regime_survival": 0.826087, "best_return": 0.301386, "worst_return": -0.172884, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.07107, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.040978, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.324257, "worst_return": -0.248408, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.055053, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.075853, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.078629, "worst_return": -0.181622, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"green", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.073124, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.165669, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.076043, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.026643, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.147857, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.061633, 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"Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.039873, "energy": 78.091182, "activity_lines": [ 8.114667, 8.499091, 9.475905, 10.37043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.49, "volume": 28711182, "typical_volume": 54075320.75, "trend": 11.177333, "fair_value": 11.179423, "relative_strength": -33.932257, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.029031, "energy": 71.225944, "activity_lines": [ 7.864, 8.233818, 9.185952, 10.122323 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.0, "volume": 24487179, "typical_volume": 46110468.85, "trend": 11.024, "fair_value": 11.147756, "relative_strength": -29.178712, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.207716, "energy": 66.097383, "activity_lines": [ 7.86, 8.122, 8.984095, 9.917333 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.26, "volume": 23912209, "typical_volume": 37430475.4, "trend": 10.881333, "fair_value": 11.112244, "relative_strength": -28.132159, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.032083, "energy": 63.866705, "activity_lines": [ 7.946, 8.099091, 8.841095, 9.739011 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }