{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a50a1b21-7b36-41a2-9544-f5d4549f5603", "symbol": "HAV", "name": "HAV Group ASA", "exchange": "OSL", "country": "NO", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "OSEBX.OL", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 51.928, "architecture_energy": 28.094, "architecture_maturity": 55.509, "architecture_confidence": 95.04, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.87, "rotation_up": 32.39, "upward_expansion": 64.87, "deceleration": 95.36, "rotation_down": 26.62, "downward_expansion": 7.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.923333, 13.822727, 13.760381, 12.992215 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 14.4, "trend_reference": 11.925333, "distance_from_trend": 0.207513, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 8.953974, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.608224, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 37.114631, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.463415, "excess_performance": 0.338421, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.207513, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.290853, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.608224, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00499, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.371146, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.176759, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.463415, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.476177, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 141831, "relative_activity": 0.282799, "balance": 1.476177, "dry_up": 0.233559, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.116186, "annualized_volatility": 0.637838, "from_high_reference": -0.213115, "from_low_reference": 1.666667 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.925333, "fair_value_reference": 8.953974, "structural_low": 8.7, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.009797, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.036194, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.527778, "worst_return": -0.150685, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.274505, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.245414, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.544444, "worst_return": 0.004566, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.190868, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.274285, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.190868, "worst_return": -0.190868, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.499543, 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"2024-08-16", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.278017, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.084058, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.02507, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.089337, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.033033, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.025743, "active": false }, { "regime": 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570481.05, "trend": 11.386, "fair_value": 8.904936, "relative_strength": 34.638525, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.716215, "energy": 19.061372, "activity_lines": [ 13.606667, 13.853636, 13.494238, 12.665161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.7, "volume": 99623, "typical_volume": 530611.9, "trend": 11.644667, "fair_value": 8.927372, "relative_strength": 32.307802, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.853632, "energy": 20.071231, "activity_lines": [ 13.676667, 13.762727, 13.601476, 12.814452 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.4, "volume": 141831, "typical_volume": 501526.0, "trend": 11.925333, "fair_value": 8.953974, "relative_strength": 37.114631, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.927657, "energy": 28.094346, "activity_lines": [ 13.923333, 13.822727, 13.760381, 12.992215 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }