{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a50d91ff-f57d-4bc9-a33d-6d10219c5821", "symbol": "4439", "name": "TST Group Holding Ltd.", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 51.422, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 65.209, "architecture_energy": 76.738, "architecture_maturity": 9.106, "architecture_confidence": 66.081, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.88, "rotation_up": 76.94, "upward_expansion": 93.55, "deceleration": 41.96, "rotation_down": 8.76, "downward_expansion": 17.88 }, "activity_lines": [ 101.926666, 98.72584, 95.178091, 93.75209 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 101.5, "trend_reference": 93.220188, "distance_from_trend": 0.08882, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 96.459709, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.052253, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -22.65215, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.02904, "excess_performance": -0.412332, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.08882, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005553, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.052253, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.114558, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.226522, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.090082, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.02904, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.134841, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 94646, "relative_activity": 0.7243, "balance": 2.134841, "dry_up": 0.828523, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.053469, "annualized_volatility": 0.353555, "from_high_reference": -0.074767, "from_low_reference": 0.318457 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 93.220188, "fair_value_reference": 96.459709, "structural_low": 76.983925, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.02041, "positive_rate": 0.4375, "directional_follow_through": 0.4375, "median_excess_return": -0.029269, "regime_survival": 0.6875, "best_return": 0.180451, "worst_return": -0.165632, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.061594, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.042135, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.210985, "worst_return": -0.17451, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.113684, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.08043, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.136395, "worst_return": -0.116112, "sufficient": true }, { 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-18.895325, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 47.325588, "energy": 68.458762, "activity_lines": [ 99.434897, 95.282624, 93.085287, 92.501686 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 104.0, "volume": 124200, "typical_volume": 134141.05, "trend": 93.140748, "fair_value": 96.720898, "relative_strength": -18.652406, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.973121, "energy": 82.406934, "activity_lines": [ 101.61948, 97.366879, 94.303605, 93.212784 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 101.5, "volume": 94646, "typical_volume": 130672.35, "trend": 93.220188, "fair_value": 96.459709, "relative_strength": -22.65215, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.208592, "energy": 76.738495, "activity_lines": [ 101.926666, 98.72584, 95.178091, 93.75209 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }