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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 77.26, "architecture_energy": 80.333, "architecture_maturity": 16.722, "architecture_confidence": 71.369, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.63, "rotation_up": 80.74, "upward_expansion": 96.03, "deceleration": 39.35, "rotation_down": 9.92, "downward_expansion": 18.03 }, "activity_lines": [ 384.426667, 375.49635, 362.143064, 357.10664 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 392.05, "trend_reference": 353.508567, "distance_from_trend": 0.109025, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 290.779552, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.348272, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.414407, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.093982, "excess_performance": -0.031643, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.109025, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.027184, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.348272, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.105293, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.014144, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.072061, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.093982, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.853449, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4959728, "relative_activity": 0.789464, "balance": 0.853449, "dry_up": 0.953252, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.043422, "annualized_volatility": 0.254038, "from_high_reference": -0.019875, "from_low_reference": 0.283433 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 353.508567, "fair_value_reference": 290.779552, "structural_low": 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"stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.59984, "energy": 78.138581, "activity_lines": [ 375.038031, 365.743261, 354.942757, 352.42031 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 383.42, "volume": 7559529, "typical_volume": 6409887.65, "trend": 352.133126, "fair_value": 289.643468, "relative_strength": 2.724389, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.635858, "energy": 77.796084, "activity_lines": [ 379.566667, 370.216927, 358.211863, 354.531358 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 392.05, "volume": 4959728, "typical_volume": 6282401.7, "trend": 353.508567, "fair_value": 290.779552, "relative_strength": 1.414407, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.260496, "energy": 80.333404, "activity_lines": [ 384.426667, 375.49635, 362.143064, 357.10664 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }