{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a510284f-74e9-4154-8aa8-b5e3fd4657ba", "symbol": "VCM", "name": "Vecima Networks Inc.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 69.246, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 13.344, "architecture_energy": 8.165, "architecture_maturity": 35.312, "architecture_confidence": 89.66, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.95, "rotation_up": 25.83, "upward_expansion": 46.74, "deceleration": 82.88, "rotation_down": 26.29, "downward_expansion": 27.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.928, 12.930182, 13.085197, 12.956688 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 12.94, "trend_reference": 12.495849, "distance_from_trend": 0.035544, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 14.315909, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.096111, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.204181, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.2857, "excess_performance": 0.165279, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.035544, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.090186, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.096111, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003763, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.012042, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.093244, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.2857, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.525581, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3300, "relative_activity": 0.191972, "balance": 1.525581, "dry_up": 0.589005, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.047259, "annualized_volatility": 0.22841, "from_high_reference": -0.10697, "from_low_reference": 0.418648 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.495849, "fair_value_reference": 14.315909, "structural_low": 9.767081, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.001803, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.005633, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.110158, "worst_return": -0.086391, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.064665, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.080305, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.142683, "worst_return": -0.113648, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.083882, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.09075, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.382763, "worst_return": -0.200455, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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44.232714, "energy": 33.347639, "activity_lines": [ 13.254, 13.333162, 13.195143, 12.68892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 12.79, "volume": 6300, "typical_volume": 21420.0, "trend": 12.012751, "fair_value": 14.442282, "relative_strength": 2.762363, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.387661, "energy": 25.183716, "activity_lines": [ 13.046, 13.239171, 13.183519, 12.745374 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 12.74, "volume": 12000, "typical_volume": 19680.0, "trend": 12.114493, "fair_value": 14.415797, "relative_strength": 2.305232, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 13.580227, "energy": 18.095052, "activity_lines": [ 12.901333, 13.138254, 13.158877, 12.792293 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.4, "volume": 8000, "typical_volume": 18555.0, "trend": 12.206553, "fair_value": 14.384079, "relative_strength": -0.071941, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -4.660232, "energy": 18.353851, "activity_lines": [ 12.707333, 12.983482, 13.097943, 12.810713 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.24, "volume": 21000, "typical_volume": 18690.0, "trend": 12.305791, "fair_value": 14.36196, "relative_strength": 6.381307, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.666442, "energy": 16.323754, "activity_lines": [ 12.842667, 12.995763, 13.115591, 12.877387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.99, "volume": 8200, "typical_volume": 17980.0, "trend": 12.395043, "fair_value": 14.338362, "relative_strength": 4.86511, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 12.314247, "energy": 11.288845, "activity_lines": [ 12.892, 12.963455, 13.104296, 12.921529 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.94, "volume": 3300, "typical_volume": 17190.0, "trend": 12.495849, "fair_value": 14.315909, "relative_strength": 1.204181, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 13.344134, "energy": 8.165046, "activity_lines": [ 12.928, 12.930182, 13.085197, 12.956688 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }