{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a517b8f9-d416-4f7c-8208-ef7d24faa25b", "symbol": "CURA", "name": "Curaleaf Holdings, Inc.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 90.928, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 12.208, "architecture_energy": 16.376, "architecture_maturity": 49.878, "architecture_confidence": 85.246, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.46, "rotation_up": 20.47, "upward_expansion": 47.74, "deceleration": 81.44, "rotation_down": 34.26, "downward_expansion": 25.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.87, 13.342, 13.618476, 12.942473 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 12.95, "trend_reference": 12.05, "distance_from_trend": 0.074689, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.186154, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.062681, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.979956, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.320082, "excess_performance": 0.19966, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.074689, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.082951, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.062681, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.256159, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.0198, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.558472, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.320082, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.785874, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 989600, "relative_activity": 0.977503, "balance": 0.785874, "dry_up": 0.707495, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.130799, "annualized_volatility": 0.628026, "from_high_reference": -0.381123, "from_low_reference": 0.666667 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.05, "fair_value_reference": 12.186154, "structural_low": 7.77, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.019841, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.04742, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.224449, "worst_return": -0.152901, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.149644, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.193283, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.314, "worst_return": -0.202899, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.07905, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.03462, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.36, "worst_return": -0.2019, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.134, 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"2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.153846, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.004751, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.251244, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.574074, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.135266, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.14, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward 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}, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 14.65, "volume": 33300, "typical_volume": 1049673.4, "trend": 11.892667, "fair_value": 12.208205, "relative_strength": 19.310994, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.099939, "energy": 28.423512, "activity_lines": [ 14.397333, 14.484545, 13.447381, 12.587828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 13.5, "volume": 689100, "typical_volume": 1041273.4, "trend": 11.832667, "fair_value": 12.200513, "relative_strength": 8.531272, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.894214, "energy": 23.13584, "activity_lines": [ 14.036, 14.300364, 13.563571, 12.691527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.14, "volume": 609800, "typical_volume": 1020541.75, "trend": 11.856667, "fair_value": 12.196282, "relative_strength": 4.494093, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.110655, "energy": 17.567421, "activity_lines": [ 13.735333, 14.055636, 13.627333, 12.775871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.96, "volume": 487600, "typical_volume": 997421.7, "trend": 11.912667, "fair_value": 12.191282, "relative_strength": 1.917595, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.79527, "energy": 18.733198, "activity_lines": [ 13.421333, 13.829454, 13.656952, 12.847054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.41, "volume": 778000, "typical_volume": 1001123.4, "trend": 11.968333, "fair_value": 12.180449, "relative_strength": -2.712299, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 7.849331, "energy": 14.479056, "activity_lines": [ 12.997333, 13.523455, 13.618476, 12.87914 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.95, "volume": 989600, "typical_volume": 1012375.05, "trend": 12.05, "fair_value": 12.186154, "relative_strength": -1.979956, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 12.207791, "energy": 16.376164, "activity_lines": [ 12.87, 13.342, 13.618476, 12.942473 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }