{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a51fa342-3d59-42da-822f-7922b25ce9d3", "symbol": "2886", "name": "Mega Financial Holding Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 74.225, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 67.021, "architecture_energy": 65.522, "architecture_maturity": 38.161, "architecture_confidence": 59.889, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.2, "rotation_up": 75.66, "upward_expansion": 87.48, "deceleration": 60.32, "rotation_down": 11.66, "downward_expansion": 11.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 48.394463, 47.101606, 44.338522, 42.654409 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 47.349998, "trend_reference": 40.838304, "distance_from_trend": 0.159451, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 36.955698, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.281264, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -16.109315, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.234043, "excess_performance": -0.207329, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.159451, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.060471, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.281264, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.222013, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.161093, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.184124, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.234043, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.743921, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 207904704, "relative_activity": 1.292849, "balance": 2.743921, "dry_up": 1.113271, "accumulation_observations": 7, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.055951, "annualized_volatility": 0.202094, "from_high_reference": -0.085384, "from_low_reference": 0.29762 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 40.838304, "fair_value_reference": 36.955698, "structural_low": 36.489887, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": 0.015388, "positive_rate": 0.605263, "directional_follow_through": 0.605263, "median_excess_return": -0.001001, "regime_survival": 0.815789, "best_return": 0.134211, "worst_return": -0.087741, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.0211, "positive_rate": 0.785714, "directional_follow_through": 0.785714, "median_excess_return": -0.021711, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.155654, "worst_return": -0.160048, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.045083, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": 0.065156, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.191825, "worst_return": -0.068091, 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expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.673323, "energy": 83.864585, "activity_lines": [ 45.626017, 44.325113, 42.017198, 40.912669 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 51.191891, "volume": 201672980, "typical_volume": 153075687.95, "trend": 40.225643, "fair_value": 36.762015, "relative_strength": -5.386649, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 95.157348, "energy": 93.000668, "activity_lines": [ 47.624847, 45.829932, 43.04278, 41.646085 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 49.070946, "volume": 157293326, "typical_volume": 155974746.55, "trend": 40.566279, "fair_value": 36.863173, "relative_strength": -10.774093, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.454521, "energy": 82.685863, "activity_lines": [ 48.470011, 46.717749, 43.80049, 42.216749 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 47.349998, "volume": 207904704, "typical_volume": 160811236.8, "trend": 40.838304, "fair_value": 36.955698, "relative_strength": -16.109315, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.020918, "energy": 65.522262, "activity_lines": [ 48.394463, 47.101606, 44.338522, 42.654409 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }