{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a5200290-aa66-4e9c-8911-ad9d919ceab5", "symbol": "AKA", "name": "AKA Brands Holding Corp", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1a", "phase_label": "Stage 1A \u00b7 Bottoming", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 79.327, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 26.25, "architecture_energy": 31.243, "architecture_maturity": 12.045, "architecture_confidence": 40.641, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.98, "rotation_up": 54.31, "upward_expansion": 51.8, "deceleration": 30.52, "rotation_down": 20.78, "downward_expansion": 12.46 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.116, 10.839273, 10.490816, 10.405523 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 10.99, "trend_reference": 10.46109, "distance_from_trend": 0.05056, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.936682, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.150478, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.731542, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.037771, "excess_performance": -0.087853, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.05056, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.048342, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.150478, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.05954, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.107315, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003758, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.037771, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.536312, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12328, "relative_activity": 0.666953, "balance": 0.536312, "dry_up": 0.706366, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.115999, "annualized_volatility": 0.420569, "from_high_reference": -0.32906, "from_low_reference": 0.305226 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.46109, "fair_value_reference": 12.936682, "structural_low": 8.42, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.143624, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.154973, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.143624, "worst_return": -0.143624, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.201342, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.245437, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.201342, "worst_return": -0.201342, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.277852, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.352813, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.277852, "worst_return": -0.277852, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.515595, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.091767, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.246886, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.122595, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward 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"date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.01, "volume": 16774, "typical_volume": 20360.15, "trend": 10.462887, "fair_value": 12.833592, "relative_strength": -8.162968, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 18.630299, "energy": 27.18828, "activity_lines": [ 10.895333, 10.279818, 10.231902, 10.277072 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.97, "volume": 11732, "typical_volume": 20133.4, "trend": 10.449557, "fair_value": 12.866605, "relative_strength": -7.667546, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 27.698746, "energy": 33.023749, "activity_lines": [ 11.020667, 10.459273, 10.310699, 10.309789 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.42, "volume": 11392, "typical_volume": 18800.25, "trend": 10.476557, "fair_value": 12.898618, "relative_strength": -4.560303, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 34.13569, "energy": 45.138275, "activity_lines": [ 11.171333, 10.702182, 10.426638, 10.372398 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.99, "volume": 12328, "typical_volume": 18484.05, "trend": 10.46109, "fair_value": 12.936682, "relative_strength": -10.731542, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 26.249727, "energy": 31.243196, "activity_lines": [ 11.116, 10.839273, 10.490816, 10.405523 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }