{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a5222a90-aa29-44ff-9f5a-722ab01f5dcd", "symbol": "MCH", "name": "MATTHEWS ASIAN FUNDS CHINA ACTIVE ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 0.745, "architecture_energy": 6.906, "architecture_maturity": 18.99, "architecture_confidence": 52.042, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 63.44, "rotation_up": 24.73, "upward_expansion": 9.1, "deceleration": 56.13, "rotation_down": 43.07, "downward_expansion": 46.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.21092, 28.217487, 28.366557, 28.243797 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 29.2773, "trend_reference": 28.29067, "distance_from_trend": 0.034875, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 23.281349, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.257543, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.262987, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.00307, "excess_performance": -0.122555, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.034875, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004429, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.257543, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027443, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.08263, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.030178, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.00307, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.830295, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6581, "relative_activity": 0.458088, "balance": 1.830295, "dry_up": 0.629722, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.037827, "annualized_volatility": 0.19597, "from_high_reference": -0.037982, "from_low_reference": 0.144755 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 28.29067, "fair_value_reference": 23.281349, "structural_low": 25.77, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.019097, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.000283, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.217833, "worst_return": -0.095093, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.065738, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.009091, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.123326, "worst_return": 0.014546, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.146322, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.000124, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.270755, "worst_return": 0.02189, "sufficient": false }, { 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"2026-05-22", "close": 29.0872, "volume": 10745, "typical_volume": 19522.4, "trend": 28.421187, "fair_value": 22.74286, "relative_strength": -6.159034, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 26.092423, "energy": 31.664742, "activity_lines": [ 28.919053, 28.382531, 28.114465, 28.261075 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "close": 29.0078, "volume": 8855, "typical_volume": 19374.55, "trend": 28.416516, "fair_value": 22.798862, "relative_strength": -7.735888, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 23.638807, "energy": 37.365433, "activity_lines": [ 29.004893, 28.60582, 28.181019, 28.298921 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "close": 28.2839, "volume": 9893, "typical_volume": 19191.35, "trend": 28.391116, "fair_value": 22.849224, "relative_strength": -7.669695, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 18.845582, "energy": 21.603533, "activity_lines": [ 28.79822, 28.644082, 28.181625, 28.290365 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "close": 28.7605, "volume": 7908, "typical_volume": 19379.5, "trend": 28.390339, "fair_value": 22.895426, "relative_strength": -6.599959, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 17.523074, "energy": 17.106384, "activity_lines": [ 28.748427, 28.725164, 28.233808, 28.314196 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 29.534, "volume": 36746, "typical_volume": 20011.3, "trend": 28.454898, "fair_value": 22.957656, "relative_strength": -4.958719, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 31.701892, "energy": 23.717314, "activity_lines": [ 28.977767, 28.900645, 28.362774, 28.387981 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 28.5644, "volume": 4876, "typical_volume": 19201.25, "trend": 28.464031, "fair_value": 23.013022, "relative_strength": -5.818043, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 14.033899, "energy": 11.89655, "activity_lines": [ 28.85434, 28.86098, 28.398893, 28.395045 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 27.9427, "volume": 21266, "typical_volume": 19644.3, "trend": 28.435682, "fair_value": 23.064165, "relative_strength": -9.768041, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -1.953298, "energy": 4.214924, "activity_lines": [ 28.558533, 28.706889, 28.37877, 28.361411 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 28.28, "volume": 4385, "typical_volume": 19597.65, "trend": 28.43528, "fair_value": 23.111703, "relative_strength": -9.831496, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 0.363144, "energy": 4.087164, "activity_lines": [ 28.446167, 28.619524, 28.394601, 28.351367 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 27.102, "volume": 2454, "typical_volume": 19008.3, "trend": 28.390937, "fair_value": 23.155176, "relative_strength": -12.062019, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.233619, "energy": 31.232891, "activity_lines": [ 27.941393, 28.317505, 28.302838, 28.265349 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 27.4055, "volume": 22972, "typical_volume": 17120.15, "trend": 28.342453, "fair_value": 23.188031, "relative_strength": -10.386746, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.032639, "energy": 41.546956, "activity_lines": [ 27.648353, 28.106633, 28.247074, 28.201772 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 28.0192, "volume": 4180, "typical_volume": 15473.2, "trend": 28.30266, "fair_value": 23.227245, "relative_strength": -9.244182, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.729154, "energy": 39.80147, "activity_lines": [ 27.70178, 28.037978, 28.248229, 28.180917 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 29.2773, "volume": 6581, "typical_volume": 14366.25, "trend": 28.29067, "fair_value": 23.281349, "relative_strength": -8.262987, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 0.745099, "energy": 6.90588, "activity_lines": [ 28.21092, 28.217487, 28.366557, 28.243797 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }