{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a52a1de3-e8f9-419e-b32a-18a9c057301e", "symbol": "STBA", "name": "S&T Bancorp Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 66.534, "architecture_energy": 66.047, "architecture_maturity": 43.055, "architecture_confidence": 81.248, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.03, "rotation_up": 71.88, "upward_expansion": 88.08, "deceleration": 51.91, "rotation_down": 14.74, "downward_expansion": 12.41 }, "activity_lines": [ 51.134, 50.166727, 48.092597, 46.523297 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 50.87, "trend_reference": 44.693848, "distance_from_trend": 0.138188, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 35.936252, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.415562, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 6.840585, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.172111, "excess_performance": -0.015343, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.138188, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.080659, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.415562, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.120654, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.068406, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.122912, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.172111, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.644818, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1220737, "relative_activity": 0.99028, "balance": 1.644818, "dry_up": 1.167626, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.044296, "annualized_volatility": 0.193213, "from_high_reference": -0.049159, "from_low_reference": 0.518573 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 44.693848, "fair_value_reference": 35.936252, "structural_low": 38.614032, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.00936, "positive_rate": 0.434783, "directional_follow_through": 0.434783, "median_excess_return": -0.006838, "regime_survival": 0.478261, "best_return": 0.066823, "worst_return": -0.150313, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.024008, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.057246, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.357709, "worst_return": -0.165561, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.040168, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.015343, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.172111, "worst_return": -0.177792, "sufficient": true }, 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.079151, "energy": 79.199738, "activity_lines": [ 49.173333, 48.132545, 46.249851, 45.026677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 51.79, "volume": 1754565, "typical_volume": 1277746.05, "trend": 43.854885, "fair_value": 35.637844, "relative_strength": 15.692238, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.47144, "energy": 80.696648, "activity_lines": [ 50.173333, 48.991636, 46.937573, 45.564699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 52.15, "volume": 1460326, "typical_volume": 1286985.1, "trend": 44.306846, "fair_value": 35.790148, "relative_strength": 15.409494, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.893261, "energy": 80.220095, "activity_lines": [ 50.963333, 49.761818, 47.605291, 46.099868 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 50.87, "volume": 1220737, "typical_volume": 1232718.65, "trend": 44.693848, "fair_value": 35.936252, "relative_strength": 6.840585, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.533707, "energy": 66.047453, "activity_lines": [ 51.134, 50.166727, 48.092597, 46.523297 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }