{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a52a6b6a-55b2-48b4-b78f-95bee41498bd", "symbol": "FMCE", "name": "FM COMPOUNDERS EQUITY ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 78.577, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 77.895, "architecture_energy": 48.776, "architecture_maturity": 55.84, "architecture_confidence": 71.969, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.85, "rotation_up": 44.56, "upward_expansion": 74.12, "deceleration": 91.17, "rotation_down": 29.18, "downward_expansion": 12.12 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.406393, 28.390573, 28.098926, 27.606814 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 29.0348, "trend_reference": 27.104347, "distance_from_trend": 0.071223, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 25.741171, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.127952, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.013736, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.102752, "excess_performance": -0.022873, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.071223, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025971, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.127952, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020425, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.030137, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010519, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.102752, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.570507, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 193, "relative_activity": 0.098709, "balance": 1.570507, "dry_up": 0.588544, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.019707, "annualized_volatility": 0.135887, "from_high_reference": -0.002481, "from_low_reference": 0.190239 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 27.104347, "fair_value_reference": 25.741171, "structural_low": 24.3941, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.009007, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-11-15", "close": 24.171054, "volume": 63193, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-11-22", "close": 24.625711, "volume": 29693, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, 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"modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.208665, "energy": 83.563602, "activity_lines": [ 28.467673, 28.218949, 27.527085, 27.154501 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 28.5527, "volume": 454, "typical_volume": 1919.8, "trend": 26.878937, "fair_value": 25.624427, "relative_strength": -2.919538, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.28711, "energy": 81.262286, "activity_lines": [ 28.568064, 28.310865, 27.682839, 27.266857 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 28.2067, "volume": 194, "typical_volume": 1875.2, "trend": 26.944857, "fair_value": 25.653771, "relative_strength": -2.432132, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.75439, "energy": 78.466334, "activity_lines": [ 28.48775, 28.320912, 27.795033, 27.352519 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 27.5638, "volume": 187, "typical_volume": 1843.9, "trend": 26.980434, "fair_value": 25.675232, "relative_strength": -3.912144, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.09392, "energy": 45.180651, "activity_lines": [ 28.170993, 28.211318, 27.836492, 27.39245 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 28.3161, "volume": 4029, "typical_volume": 1968.55, "trend": 27.047824, "fair_value": 25.704575, "relative_strength": -2.215914, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.858452, "energy": 35.411535, "activity_lines": [ 28.165027, 28.237907, 27.940689, 27.478622 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 29.0348, "volume": 193, "typical_volume": 1955.25, "trend": 27.104347, "fair_value": 25.741171, "relative_strength": -3.013736, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.895326, "energy": 48.77603, "activity_lines": [ 28.406393, 28.390573, 28.098926, 27.606814 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }