{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a52c33f7-65d8-4871-9b27-56de69142c7d", "symbol": "LCID", "name": "Lucid Group Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -9.263, "architecture_energy": 14.948, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 49.062, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.61, "rotation_up": 39.85, "upward_expansion": 30.1, "deceleration": 44.39, "rotation_down": 19.6, "downward_expansion": 47.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.926, 6.503909, 6.363214, 6.952204 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 7.04, "trend_reference": 7.8925, "distance_from_trend": -0.108014, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 25.381474, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.722632, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -49.161333, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.35175, "excess_performance": -0.539203, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.108014, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.222541, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.722632, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.069773, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.491613, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.190817, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.35175, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.775398, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 61074735, "relative_activity": 0.705144, "balance": 1.775398, "dry_up": 1.533344, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.21713, "annualized_volatility": 0.795926, "from_high_reference": -0.720967, "from_low_reference": 1.970464 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.8925, "fair_value_reference": 25.381474, "structural_low": 2.37, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 46, "median_return": -0.089243, "positive_rate": 0.326087, "directional_follow_through": 0.673913, "median_excess_return": -0.091206, "regime_survival": 0.891304, "best_return": 0.884334, "worst_return": -0.370546, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.15762, "positive_rate": 0.1875, "directional_follow_through": 0.8125, "median_excess_return": -0.184544, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.401606, "worst_return": -0.522452, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.42931, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.539862, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.259928, "worst_return": -0.546531, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"volume": 312782308, "typical_volume": 80192666.8, "trend": 8.3315, "fair_value": 26.5775, "relative_strength": -49.91947, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.941492, "energy": 21.054944, "activity_lines": [ 6.296, 5.993091, 6.389333, 7.197892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.3, "volume": 69435416, "typical_volume": 82264184.15, "trend": 8.161167, "fair_value": 26.139038, "relative_strength": -54.682726, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.900001, "energy": 19.250497, "activity_lines": [ 6.378, 6.065545, 6.307833, 7.066828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.38, "volume": 87938731, "typical_volume": 84941065.95, "trend": 8.0355, "fair_value": 25.761987, "relative_strength": -45.495246, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -18.997561, "energy": 15.720384, "activity_lines": [ 6.757333, 6.329636, 6.345714, 7.01643 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.04, "volume": 61074735, "typical_volume": 86613195.4, "trend": 7.8925, "fair_value": 25.381474, "relative_strength": -49.161333, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -9.262504, "energy": 14.94798, "activity_lines": [ 6.926, 6.503909, 6.363214, 6.952204 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }