{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a5326af4-77be-4395-99c7-44c3ce3e2bcc", "symbol": "1477", "name": "Ocumension Therapeutics", "exchange": "HKG", "country": "HK", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-21", "benchmark": "^HSI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -42.621, "architecture_energy": 33.243, "architecture_maturity": 76.944, "architecture_confidence": 85.412, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.41, "rotation_up": 26.47, "upward_expansion": 16.27, "deceleration": 45.66, "rotation_down": 33.39, "downward_expansion": 61.6 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.274, 5.238182, 5.473143, 5.918108 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 5.285, "trend_reference": 6.419667, "distance_from_trend": -0.176749, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.675769, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.208331, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -27.519302, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.281929, "excess_performance": -0.266638, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.176749, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.124869, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.208331, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.106753, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.275193, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02253, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.281929, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.205735, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1291000, "relative_activity": 0.363609, "balance": 0.205735, "dry_up": 0.528645, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.121607, "annualized_volatility": 0.508723, "from_high_reference": -0.523014, "from_low_reference": 0.308168 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.419667, "fair_value_reference": 6.675769, "structural_low": 4.04, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": 0.000744, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.005856, "regime_survival": 0.78125, "best_return": 0.276786, "worst_return": -0.391791, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.090498, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.044434, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.377584, "worst_return": -0.428483, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.125483, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.174398, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.0319, "worst_return": -0.363636, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.78312, "energy": 41.594045, "activity_lines": [ 5.278667, 5.232545, 5.869524, 6.270323 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.06, "volume": 1966297, "typical_volume": 3982171.55, "trend": 6.646667, "fair_value": 6.744038, "relative_strength": -33.389649, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.327294, "energy": 39.059995, "activity_lines": [ 5.264, 5.175455, 5.739905, 6.162602 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.295, "volume": 1838000, "typical_volume": 3927214.95, "trend": 6.5575, "fair_value": 6.718686, "relative_strength": -28.685427, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.976728, "energy": 32.937509, "activity_lines": [ 5.280333, 5.182545, 5.642095, 6.075398 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 5.32, "volume": 2412542, "typical_volume": 3850797.4, "trend": 6.4855, "fair_value": 6.696635, "relative_strength": -25.687884, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.131656, "energy": 33.828796, "activity_lines": [ 5.291333, 5.210636, 5.5545, 5.995559 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "close": 5.285, "volume": 1291000, "typical_volume": 3550513.85, "trend": 6.419667, "fair_value": 6.675769, "relative_strength": -27.519302, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.621427, "energy": 33.242904, "activity_lines": [ 5.274, 5.238182, 5.473143, 5.918108 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }