{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a532a726-9393-407a-b3c6-2a05475f8b7e", "symbol": "TCLV", "name": "TD Q Canadian Low Volatility ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 58.505, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 66.219, "architecture_energy": 62.779, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 75.368, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.78, "rotation_up": 64.27, "upward_expansion": 86.91, "deceleration": 64.26, "rotation_down": 21.64, "downward_expansion": 11.25 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.500666, 28.390844, 27.96986, 27.639356 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 28.34, "trend_reference": 27.229222, "distance_from_trend": 0.040794, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 22.333154, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.268965, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.742948, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.077418, "excess_performance": -0.043003, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.040794, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029318, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.268965, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016902, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.047429, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017377, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.077418, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.906446, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 23000, "relative_activity": 0.77402, "balance": 0.906446, "dry_up": 1.070167, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.014739, "annualized_volatility": 0.090639, "from_high_reference": -0.025112, "from_low_reference": 0.160324 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 27.229222, "fair_value_reference": 22.333154, "structural_low": 25.965498, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 41, "median_return": 0.010008, "positive_rate": 0.682927, "directional_follow_through": 0.682927, "median_excess_return": -0.000561, "regime_survival": 0.878049, "best_return": 0.054837, "worst_return": -0.047118, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.035471, "positive_rate": 0.846154, "directional_follow_through": 0.846154, "median_excess_return": 0.003751, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.092996, "worst_return": -0.068714, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.069951, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.012081, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.14902, "worst_return": -0.057958, "sufficient": true }, { 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"stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 86.379414, "energy": 93.037375, "activity_lines": [ 28.403826, 28.118868, 27.650601, 27.366875 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 28.559999, "volume": 24900, "typical_volume": 35925.0, "trend": 27.089107, "fair_value": 22.192202, "relative_strength": -1.707937, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.077152, "energy": 83.333931, "activity_lines": [ 28.491666, 28.250456, 27.771745, 27.466781 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 28.59, "volume": 42700, "typical_volume": 33935.0, "trend": 27.165983, "fair_value": 22.264107, "relative_strength": -0.99471, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.410955, "energy": 67.65674, "activity_lines": [ 28.545333, 28.353925, 27.887038, 27.563613 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 28.34, "volume": 23000, "typical_volume": 29715.0, "trend": 27.229222, "fair_value": 22.333154, "relative_strength": -4.742948, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.218634, "energy": 62.779158, "activity_lines": [ 28.500666, 28.390844, 27.96986, 27.639356 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }