{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a5340d96-6c46-486d-8ec6-52d72cd64594", "symbol": "ALPK3", "name": "Allpark Empreendimentos, Participa\u00e7\u00f5es e Servi\u00e7os S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 52.307, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -45.73, "architecture_energy": 31.183, "architecture_maturity": 42.124, "architecture_confidence": 81.237, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.5, "rotation_up": 18.89, "upward_expansion": 6.56, "deceleration": 42.28, "rotation_down": 48.58, "downward_expansion": 75.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.298667, 4.318909, 4.344156, 4.390017 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 4.35, "trend_reference": 4.468653, "distance_from_trend": -0.026552, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.790396, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.147637, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.238289, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.044388, "excess_performance": 0.01266, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.026552, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008377, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.147637, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00137, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.002383, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.055591, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.044388, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.321901, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 532700, "relative_activity": 1.093155, "balance": 1.321901, "dry_up": 1.127477, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.068612, "annualized_volatility": 0.340732, "from_high_reference": -0.214849, "from_low_reference": 0.56186 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.468653, "fair_value_reference": 3.790396, "structural_low": 3.97, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.02641, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.357143, "median_excess_return": -0.033481, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.149847, "worst_return": -0.209091, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.051965, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.053022, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.391438, "worst_return": -0.304636, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.118527, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.139758, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.314985, "worst_return": -0.277523, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.006689, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.006711, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.010381, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.045775, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.003322, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.003345, 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"gate": "down", "direction": -28.694862, "energy": 12.40531, "activity_lines": [ 4.405333, 4.390182, 4.391808, 4.451065 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.19, "volume": 715800, "typical_volume": 576380.0, "trend": 4.505841, "fair_value": 3.805226, "relative_strength": -3.648735, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.988004, "energy": 22.539551, "activity_lines": [ 4.340667, 4.356182, 4.369288, 4.429931 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.11, "volume": 487600, "typical_volume": 526850.0, "trend": 4.486114, "fair_value": 3.799257, "relative_strength": -5.736154, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.442333, "energy": 41.566097, "activity_lines": [ 4.254667, 4.310182, 4.343059, 4.404393 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.39, "volume": 461600, "typical_volume": 489410.0, "trend": 4.476719, "fair_value": 3.794699, "relative_strength": -1.724304, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.394825, "energy": 29.507273, "activity_lines": [ 4.278, 4.317455, 4.345317, 4.398192 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.35, "volume": 532700, "typical_volume": 487305.0, "trend": 4.468653, "fair_value": 3.790396, "relative_strength": 0.238289, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.729675, "energy": 31.182651, "activity_lines": [ 4.298667, 4.318909, 4.344156, 4.390017 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }