{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a536180d-bf15-4979-a644-3606c656fc8a", "symbol": "2109", "name": "Hwa Fong Rubber Industrial Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 84.373, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 34.825, "architecture_energy": 16.847, "architecture_maturity": 19.575, "architecture_confidence": 75.594, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 61.74, "rotation_up": 31.67, "upward_expansion": 59.34, "deceleration": 85.55, "rotation_down": 29.51, "downward_expansion": 16.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.55, 14.595455, 14.510952, 14.506567 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 14.7, "trend_reference": 14.496485, "distance_from_trend": 0.014039, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 15.111144, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.027208, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -29.585705, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.030624, "excess_performance": -0.410748, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.014039, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000815, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.027208, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033782, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.295857, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.092228, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.030624, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.627278, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 474185, "relative_activity": 0.676347, "balance": 1.627278, "dry_up": 0.72229, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.027996, "annualized_volatility": 0.095222, "from_high_reference": -0.092435, "from_low_reference": 0.061372 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.496485, "fair_value_reference": 15.111144, "structural_low": 13.85, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.007529, "positive_rate": 0.318182, "directional_follow_through": 0.318182, "median_excess_return": -0.009269, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.060284, "worst_return": -0.056, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.002581, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.005902, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.038597, "worst_return": -0.137597, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.037748, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.027752, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.154386, "worst_return": -0.11831, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.017027, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.064821, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.433007, "worst_return": -0.186325, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-02-23", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.313495, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.04918, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.026363, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.01676, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.022409, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.041783, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.059826, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.01173, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.081818, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-05-08", 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14.6, "volume": 617903, "typical_volume": 745636.0, "trend": 14.493812, "fair_value": 15.043631, "relative_strength": -29.00713, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.120717, "energy": 45.773745, "activity_lines": [ 14.713333, 14.594545, 14.499778, 14.49782 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.5, "volume": 496159, "typical_volume": 730367.45, "trend": 14.492035, "fair_value": 15.059021, "relative_strength": -30.116956, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.543447, "energy": 31.24261, "activity_lines": [ 14.646667, 14.602727, 14.499055, 14.498219 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.45, "volume": 707343, "typical_volume": 728290.75, "trend": 14.490203, "fair_value": 15.074887, "relative_strength": -28.50564, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 21.243303, "energy": 11.069422, "activity_lines": [ 14.573333, 14.592727, 14.494286, 14.495507 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.45, "volume": 347894, "typical_volume": 715776.45, "trend": 14.488372, "fair_value": 15.092081, "relative_strength": -29.308646, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.67334, "energy": 11.612392, "activity_lines": [ 14.503333, 14.574545, 14.490238, 14.492913 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 14.7, "volume": 474185, "typical_volume": 701096.95, "trend": 14.496485, "fair_value": 15.111144, "relative_strength": -29.585705, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.824859, "energy": 16.846949, "activity_lines": [ 14.55, 14.595455, 14.510952, 14.506567 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }