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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 74.885, "architecture_energy": 62.591, "architecture_maturity": 22.0, "architecture_confidence": 84.217, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.27, "rotation_up": 64.37, "upward_expansion": 82.65, "deceleration": 50.64, "rotation_down": 13.51, "downward_expansion": 11.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 238.366667, 226.027273, 217.002381, 204.867381 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 267.0, "trend_reference": 190.425489, "distance_from_trend": 0.402123, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 126.140067, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.116695, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 11.143845, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.652258, "excess_performance": 0.210886, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.402123, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.121699, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.116695, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.354392, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.111438, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.15839, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.652258, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.120409, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 168112831, "relative_activity": 1.128953, "balance": 1.120409, "dry_up": 1.012404, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.127197, "annualized_volatility": 0.5477, "from_high_reference": -0.049822, "from_low_reference": 1.227839 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 190.425489, "fair_value_reference": 126.140067, "structural_low": 139.5, 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"direction": 36.180922, "energy": 20.040922, "activity_lines": [ 207.133333, 211.618182, 201.282381, 191.709044 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 214.5, "volume": 85605584, "typical_volume": 135336678.35, "trend": 182.354215, "fair_value": 124.06213, "relative_strength": -6.00456, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.78982, "energy": 22.553927, "activity_lines": [ 209.233333, 211.818182, 203.738347, 193.907299 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 209.0, "volume": 100327257, "typical_volume": 135505644.05, "trend": 183.999803, "fair_value": 124.563994, "relative_strength": -7.271505, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.570502, "energy": 18.370361, "activity_lines": [ 209.233333, 210.836364, 205.392857, 195.626382 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 247.0, "volume": 248984014, "typical_volume": 143539344.8, "trend": 186.764705, "fair_value": 125.231974, "relative_strength": 6.624516, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.501336, "energy": 35.585115, "activity_lines": [ 221.4, 216.727273, 210.452381, 199.69091 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 267.0, "volume": 168112831, "typical_volume": 148910324.85, "trend": 190.425489, "fair_value": 126.140067, "relative_strength": 11.143845, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.885206, "energy": 62.590593, "activity_lines": [ 238.366667, 226.027273, 217.002381, 204.867381 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }