{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a53acd4e-7211-453d-9fda-5c815a18e6a2", "symbol": "BUB", "name": "Bubs Australia Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -47.379, "architecture_energy": 39.908, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 93.552, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.37, "rotation_up": 27.79, "upward_expansion": 18.96, "deceleration": 46.94, "rotation_down": 38.96, "downward_expansion": 68.96 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.085467, 0.083873, 0.087724, 0.093778 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.093, "trend_reference": 0.103417, "distance_from_trend": -0.100725, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.131356, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.291999, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -27.858965, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.256, "excess_performance": -0.319706, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.100725, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.154978, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.291999, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002819, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.27859, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007766, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.256, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.434173, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7278750, "relative_activity": 1.363696, "balance": 0.434173, "dry_up": 0.969943, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.068652, "annualized_volatility": 0.367421, "from_high_reference": -0.483333, "from_low_reference": 0.223684 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.103417, "fair_value_reference": 0.131356, "structural_low": 0.076, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": -0.02788, "positive_rate": 0.352941, "directional_follow_through": 0.529412, "median_excess_return": -0.038476, "regime_survival": 0.823529, "best_return": 0.517243, "worst_return": -0.294118, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.08, "positive_rate": 0.307692, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.161484, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.378965, "worst_return": -0.310345, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.145748, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.157271, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.257142, "worst_return": -0.43662, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.111111, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.115385, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.173913, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.111111, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.618101, "energy": 79.826645, "activity_lines": [ 0.0818, 0.084855, 0.092295, 0.0998 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.08, "volume": 2818311, "typical_volume": 5367457.0, "trend": 0.108517, "fair_value": 0.133458, "relative_strength": -37.061262, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.142257, "energy": 68.602459, "activity_lines": [ 0.081, 0.083345, 0.09046, 0.097842 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.079, "volume": 3433506, "typical_volume": 5288266.15, "trend": 0.10665, "fair_value": 0.132683, "relative_strength": -36.7825, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.577279, "energy": 66.674071, "activity_lines": [ 0.080133, 0.082018, 0.088719, 0.095938 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.085, "volume": 7177783, "typical_volume": 5310050.65, "trend": 0.104817, "fair_value": 0.131978, "relative_strength": -32.765989, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.5467, "energy": 62.543964, "activity_lines": [ 0.081667, 0.082145, 0.087757, 0.094541 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.093, "volume": 7278750, "typical_volume": 5337515.05, "trend": 0.103417, "fair_value": 0.131356, "relative_strength": -27.858965, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.379206, "energy": 39.908053, "activity_lines": [ 0.085467, 0.083873, 0.087724, 0.093778 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }