{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a541454b-9462-4d7d-b36e-b845425c1b39", "symbol": "JANZ", "name": "TRUESHARES STRUCTURED OUTCOME (JANUARY) ETF", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 72.435, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 81.383, "architecture_energy": 56.412, "architecture_maturity": 45.183, "architecture_confidence": 81.275, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.58, "rotation_up": 56.34, "upward_expansion": 81.35, "deceleration": 59.12, "rotation_down": 25.52, "downward_expansion": 8.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 41.194313, 40.974576, 40.672126, 40.04856 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 42.02, "trend_reference": 39.343943, "distance_from_trend": 0.068017, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 33.877366, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.240356, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.797641, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.093414, "excess_performance": -0.032211, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.068017, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024765, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.240356, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003106, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.027976, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00148, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.093414, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.654815, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 26198, "relative_activity": 0.299161, "balance": 3.654815, "dry_up": 0.179533, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.01856, "annualized_volatility": 0.11566, "from_high_reference": -0.000476, "from_low_reference": 0.180358 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 39.343943, "fair_value_reference": 33.877366, "structural_low": 35.96, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": 0.010173, "positive_rate": 0.647059, "directional_follow_through": 0.647059, "median_excess_return": -0.003904, "regime_survival": 0.764706, "best_return": 0.049045, "worst_return": -0.053887, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.032468, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.012659, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.099778, "worst_return": -0.042403, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.065942, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.029764, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.124297, "worst_return": -0.014106, "sufficient": true }, { 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42.780947, "activity_lines": [ 40.5727, 40.638525, 39.898875, 39.393896 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 41.2765, "volume": 3250, "typical_volume": 90982.75, "trend": 38.97571, "fair_value": 33.52635, "relative_strength": -2.560506, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.529883, "energy": 52.74973, "activity_lines": [ 40.809807, 40.766213, 40.099974, 39.549242 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 40.7369, "volume": 2030, "typical_volume": 88864.75, "trend": 39.066027, "fair_value": 33.611543, "relative_strength": -2.238033, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.087146, "energy": 45.508364, "activity_lines": [ 40.809947, 40.7675, 40.235175, 39.662867 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 40.4792, "volume": 2446, "typical_volume": 87570.7, "trend": 39.132703, "fair_value": 33.69388, "relative_strength": -2.201316, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.918466, "energy": 44.974464, "activity_lines": [ 40.717393, 40.717013, 40.33356, 39.754039 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 40.9067, "volume": 32214, "typical_volume": 87395.15, "trend": 39.228927, "fair_value": 33.781857, "relative_strength": -2.146072, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.419695, "energy": 44.816811, "activity_lines": [ 40.802527, 40.745227, 40.458746, 39.868491 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 42.02, "volume": 26198, "typical_volume": 87571.65, "trend": 39.343943, "fair_value": 33.877366, "relative_strength": -2.797641, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.38284, "energy": 56.412477, "activity_lines": [ 41.194313, 40.974576, 40.672126, 40.04856 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }