{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a5488ec8-a327-47f8-a619-d4c7b5e0fc38", "symbol": "000031", "name": "Grandjoy Holdings Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.8, "architecture_energy": 59.411, "architecture_maturity": 85.41, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.71, "rotation_up": 26.71, "upward_expansion": 11.05, "deceleration": 60.09, "rotation_down": 54.2, "downward_expansion": 84.38 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.154, 2.180545, 2.386905, 2.576237 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 2.19, "trend_reference": 2.821, "distance_from_trend": -0.22368, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.947308, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.256949, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -28.689036, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.439898, "excess_performance": -0.447297, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.22368, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.082502, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.256949, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.264242, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.28689, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.109988, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.439898, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.329596, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 166056444, "relative_activity": 1.356839, "balance": 0.329596, "dry_up": 1.438242, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 7 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.095188, "annualized_volatility": 0.295709, "from_high_reference": -0.465854, "from_low_reference": 0.078818 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.821, "fair_value_reference": 2.947308, "structural_low": 2.03, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.004942, "positive_rate": 0.433333, "directional_follow_through": 0.533333, "median_excess_return": -0.0087, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.292373, "worst_return": -0.192453, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.061625, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": 0.010332, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.3625, "worst_return": -0.258503, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.081232, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.072354, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.238636, "worst_return": -0.241379, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.037736, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.010989, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.07309, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.052288, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.107692, 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-35.377906, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.48435, "energy": 88.781969, "activity_lines": [ 2.208667, 2.366364, 2.598, 2.768667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.08, "volume": 201632257, "typical_volume": 117882373.5, "trend": 2.895, "fair_value": 2.97891, "relative_strength": -31.554191, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.882186, "energy": 89.432553, "activity_lines": [ 2.147333, 2.286909, 2.53081, 2.71443 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.06, "volume": 183549177, "typical_volume": 119355905.65, "trend": 2.865, "fair_value": 2.968205, "relative_strength": -31.848424, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.162055, "energy": 82.047928, "activity_lines": [ 2.107333, 2.222182, 2.468286, 2.660559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.21, "volume": 152838023, "typical_volume": 121152091.55, "trend": 2.842, "fair_value": 2.958462, "relative_strength": -25.000733, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.464412, "energy": 64.280287, "activity_lines": [ 2.135333, 2.199273, 2.426143, 2.618301 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.19, "volume": 166056444, "typical_volume": 122384815.05, "trend": 2.821, "fair_value": 2.947308, "relative_strength": -28.689036, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.8, "energy": 59.410668, "activity_lines": [ 2.154, 2.180545, 2.386905, 2.576237 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }