{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a55020ba-19a4-43b7-98d3-d809eb1dba4d", "symbol": "ISGEC", "name": "Isgec Heavy Engineering Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 88.712, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -52.613, "architecture_energy": 72.716, "architecture_maturity": 14.597, "architecture_confidence": 75.358, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.89, "rotation_up": 16.82, "upward_expansion": 24.32, "deceleration": 43.31, "rotation_down": 78.33, "downward_expansion": 68.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 842.543339, 871.402734, 923.103813, 928.711724 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 814.700012, "trend_reference": 912.786672, "distance_from_trend": -0.107458, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1035.272729, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.213058, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.782736, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.059152, "excess_performance": 0.102861, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.107458, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016155, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.213058, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.275189, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.097827, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.241736, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.059152, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.170575, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 152311, "relative_activity": 0.619697, "balance": 0.170575, "dry_up": 0.540106, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.064167, "annualized_volatility": 0.345942, "from_high_reference": -0.268606, "from_low_reference": 0.191169 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 912.786672, "fair_value_reference": 1035.272729, "structural_low": 772.950012, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.037014, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.050224, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.005803, "worst_return": -0.079832, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.096179, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.148094, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.096179, "worst_return": -0.096179, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.113243, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.147338, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.113243, "worst_return": -0.113243, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.172865, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.024157, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.066479, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.075099, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.089576, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.073563, 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"relative_strength": -3.065919, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -40.682375, "energy": 54.425312, "activity_lines": [ 888.810002, 905.547278, 949.467382, 940.862368 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 825.950012, "volume": 159038, "typical_volume": 254691.2, "trend": 913.283337, "fair_value": 1034.676689, "relative_strength": -8.300619, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -44.326954, "energy": 63.285625, "activity_lines": [ 864.320003, 887.202733, 936.639526, 935.071939 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 814.700012, "volume": 152311, "typical_volume": 245782.95, "trend": 912.786672, "fair_value": 1035.272729, "relative_strength": -9.782736, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -52.613086, "energy": 72.715951, "activity_lines": [ 842.543339, 871.402734, 923.103813, 928.711724 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }