{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a558d0d6-f066-4d8e-8ecc-01d7d39bfa64", "symbol": "301418", "name": "Jiangsu Xiechang Electronic Technology Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 84.837, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -23.524, "architecture_energy": 38.635, "architecture_maturity": 19.105, "architecture_confidence": 65.303, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.06, "rotation_up": 16.73, "upward_expansion": 19.8, "deceleration": 62.63, "rotation_down": 69.27, "downward_expansion": 44.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 35.530667, 40.137531, 41.767405, 41.375846 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 37.560001, "trend_reference": 40.780145, "distance_from_trend": -0.078964, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 40.03971, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.061931, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.586816, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.037663, "excess_performance": -0.045063, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.078964, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.05, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.061931, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.141941, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.075868, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004731, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.037663, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.010295, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9508715, "relative_activity": 1.04889, "balance": 1.010295, "dry_up": 1.303104, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.165548, "annualized_volatility": 0.653046, "from_high_reference": -0.339662, "from_low_reference": 0.306435 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 40.780145, "fair_value_reference": 40.03971, "structural_low": 28.75, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.129885, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.088988, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.016657, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.017582, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": 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"typical_volume": 8803052.55, "trend": 40.744812, "fair_value": 40.056132, "relative_strength": -12.659617, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.019289, "energy": 41.667765, "activity_lines": [ 36.181334, 41.150568, 42.146568, 41.581318 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 37.560001, "volume": 9508715, "typical_volume": 9065498.3, "trend": 40.780145, "fair_value": 40.03971, "relative_strength": -7.586816, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.523805, "energy": 38.63499, "activity_lines": [ 35.530667, 40.137531, 41.767405, 41.375846 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }