{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a5647c46-03be-46e3-91fb-91639e5bb5ad", "symbol": "ALG", "name": "Alamo Group Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 55.383, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -8.247, "architecture_energy": 6.392, "architecture_maturity": 19.051, "architecture_confidence": 56.015, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.12, "rotation_up": 26.7, "upward_expansion": 27.26, "deceleration": 44.87, "rotation_down": 23.96, "downward_expansion": 46.93 }, "activity_lines": [ 164.138624, 163.789635, 161.84462, 165.250739 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 168.74, "trend_reference": 172.572389, "distance_from_trend": -0.022207, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 184.709951, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.08646, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -15.781791, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.188598, "excess_performance": -0.314223, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.022207, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013932, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.08646, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035014, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.157818, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.084288, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.188598, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.138008, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 758269, "relative_activity": 0.933778, "balance": 2.138008, "dry_up": 0.732576, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.068934, "annualized_volatility": 0.430505, "from_high_reference": -0.272774, "from_low_reference": 0.157656 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 172.572389, "fair_value_reference": 184.709951, "structural_low": 145.76, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.006227, "positive_rate": 0.470588, "directional_follow_through": 0.470588, "median_excess_return": 0.01135, "regime_survival": 0.529412, "best_return": 0.127486, "worst_return": -0.09719, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.012575, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.01714, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.169748, "worst_return": -0.0989, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.024968, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.102462, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.300497, 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161.149357, "volume": 883025, "typical_volume": 880667.5, "trend": 174.149398, "fair_value": 185.175554, "relative_strength": -20.686872, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.972887, "energy": 23.932278, "activity_lines": [ 164.411996, 159.89054, 161.696716, 167.767215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 162.43, "volume": 625146, "typical_volume": 873696.75, "trend": 173.789912, "fair_value": 184.995981, "relative_strength": -18.044594, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.788997, "energy": 21.079132, "activity_lines": [ 164.291999, 160.78545, 161.393391, 167.011125 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 165.35, "volume": 476067, "typical_volume": 848570.25, "trend": 173.511487, "fair_value": 184.851009, "relative_strength": -15.329218, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -15.637274, "energy": 13.721212, "activity_lines": [ 164.545016, 162.235451, 161.609451, 166.466614 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 159.08, "volume": 520054, "typical_volume": 819902.9, "trend": 173.154569, "fair_value": 184.730452, "relative_strength": -18.618955, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.272121, "energy": 14.286166, "activity_lines": [ 162.419341, 162.216725, 161.239996, 165.53555 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 168.74, "volume": 758269, "typical_volume": 812043.8, "trend": 172.572389, "fair_value": 184.709951, "relative_strength": -15.781791, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -8.246854, "energy": 6.392461, "activity_lines": [ 164.138624, 163.789635, 161.84462, 165.250739 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }