{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a56a889a-a098-44b2-9e93-7019daff866a", "symbol": "BTBTN", "name": "Bit Digital, Inc.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.901, "architecture_energy": 70.747, "architecture_maturity": 20.443, "architecture_confidence": 78.073, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.49, "rotation_up": 8.33, "upward_expansion": 14.54, "deceleration": 37.45, "rotation_down": 79.78, "downward_expansion": 92.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.086666, 26.705454, 28.537095, 28.675613 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 23.52, "trend_reference": 29.605, "distance_from_trend": -0.20554, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 49.121923, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.521191, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -41.875487, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.24129, "excess_performance": -0.186624, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.20554, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.135688, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.521191, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.118214, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.418755, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.033966, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.24129, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.791721, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8550, "relative_activity": 0.494484, "balance": 0.791721, "dry_up": 1.891705, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.196265, "annualized_volatility": 0.64942, "from_high_reference": -0.713834, "from_low_reference": 0.12 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 29.605, "fair_value_reference": 49.121923, "structural_low": 21.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.050247, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.064369, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.657143, "worst_return": -0.224658, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.135811, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.02353, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.738882, "worst_return": -0.345726, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.059189, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.041658, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.038509, "worst_return": -0.083333, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.552766, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.044858, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.229796, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.344653, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.017073, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 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"rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 22.159365, "energy": 19.662176, "activity_lines": [ 33.34, 32.634182, 30.528667, 30.81886 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 29.200001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 12944.05, "trend": 31.999333, "fair_value": 50.514679, "relative_strength": -35.031162, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -6.618906, "energy": 9.93711, "activity_lines": [ 32.086667, 32.199273, 30.503857, 30.612882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 29.889999, "volume": 12010, "typical_volume": 12907.65, "trend": 31.527, "fair_value": 50.238333, "relative_strength": -31.647105, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 1.718565, "energy": 6.989523, "activity_lines": [ 31.45, 31.868, 30.550952, 30.476796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 24.6, "volume": 60460, "typical_volume": 15008.35, "trend": 31.003667, "fair_value": 49.979295, "relative_strength": -42.295505, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.609451, "energy": 27.842776, "activity_lines": [ 29.010667, 30.513273, 30.086667, 30.029892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 24.309999, "volume": 26539, "typical_volume": 15792.9, "trend": 30.585667, "fair_value": 49.68641, "relative_strength": -41.607736, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.225655, "energy": 40.63585, "activity_lines": [ 26.834666, 29.222182, 29.615714, 29.598043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.92, "volume": 35287, "typical_volume": 17086.85, "trend": 30.152, "fair_value": 49.360256, "relative_strength": -44.4403, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.461192, "energy": 64.719431, "activity_lines": [ 24.974666, 27.805818, 29.033333, 29.103484 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.52, "volume": 8550, "typical_volume": 17290.75, "trend": 29.605, "fair_value": 49.121923, "relative_strength": -41.875487, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.901406, "energy": 70.746563, "activity_lines": [ 24.086666, 26.705454, 28.537095, 28.675613 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }