{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a577e708-6fa2-48c8-a64c-cb99e126c4f8", "symbol": "VRCA", "name": "Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.282, "architecture_energy": 54.724, "architecture_maturity": 14.49, "architecture_confidence": 90.453, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.25, "rotation_up": 13.27, "upward_expansion": 13.52, "deceleration": 35.46, "rotation_down": 64.48, "downward_expansion": 84.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.252, 5.582818, 5.853262, 5.881753 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 5.08, "trend_reference": 6.019833, "distance_from_trend": -0.156123, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 24.308096, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.791016, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.418871, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.264834, "excess_performance": -0.452287, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.156123, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.062842, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.791016, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.068467, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.244189, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.345921, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.264834, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.481823, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 284341, "relative_activity": 0.95053, "balance": 0.481823, "dry_up": 0.581252, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.215809, "annualized_volatility": 0.941273, "from_high_reference": -0.482752, "from_low_reference": 0.54878 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.019833, "fair_value_reference": 24.308096, "structural_low": 4.245, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": -0.005666, "positive_rate": 0.483871, "directional_follow_through": 0.516129, "median_excess_return": -0.032344, "regime_survival": 0.806452, "best_return": 1.015267, "worst_return": -0.695586, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.095051, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.140791, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.749398, "worst_return": -0.607062, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.125362, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.180127, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.522892, "worst_return": -0.681675, "sufficient": true 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"fair_value": 25.692968, "relative_strength": -10.448066, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -17.041016, "energy": 8.406011, "activity_lines": [ 6.223333, 6.150455, 6.134357, 6.149043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.59, "volume": 127986, "typical_volume": 392408.15, "trend": 6.322667, "fair_value": 25.250917, "relative_strength": -15.455133, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.379661, "energy": 11.848529, "activity_lines": [ 6.047, 6.026545, 6.097286, 6.096978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.02, "volume": 89276, "typical_volume": 369169.5, "trend": 6.218, "fair_value": 24.912583, "relative_strength": -22.155204, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.133752, "energy": 36.63536, "activity_lines": [ 5.69, 5.842636, 6.005357, 6.012935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.22, "volume": 193898, "typical_volume": 329375.3, "trend": 6.115333, "fair_value": 24.609506, "relative_strength": -19.061376, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.988525, "energy": 45.587784, "activity_lines": [ 5.440333, 5.717818, 5.933857, 5.948548 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.08, "volume": 284341, "typical_volume": 299139.4, "trend": 6.019833, "fair_value": 24.308096, "relative_strength": -24.418871, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.281892, "energy": 54.7239, "activity_lines": [ 5.252, 5.582818, 5.853262, 5.881753 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }