{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a57cdc23-b611-439d-add0-d5399395a326", "symbol": "4720", "name": "Tex Year Industries Inc.", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 53.409, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -29.276, "architecture_energy": 56.032, "architecture_maturity": 11.409, "architecture_confidence": 78.865, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.32, "rotation_up": 14.46, "upward_expansion": 26.97, "deceleration": 49.5, "rotation_down": 70.16, "downward_expansion": 56.64 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.083334, 20.482158, 22.223481, 21.751215 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 18.700001, "trend_reference": 20.60848, "distance_from_trend": -0.092606, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.892163, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.107022, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.079264, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.188686, "excess_performance": -0.252686, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.092606, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.127387, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.107022, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.542113, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.240793, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.35781, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.188686, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.831323, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2704782, "relative_activity": 0.130736, "balance": 0.831323, "dry_up": 0.145306, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.154688, "annualized_volatility": 0.624882, "from_high_reference": -0.367089, "from_low_reference": 0.440832 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.60848, "fair_value_reference": 16.892163, "structural_low": 14.846751, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.03352, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.026872, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.035461, "worst_return": 0.031579, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.017432, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.040148, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.05614, "worst_return": -0.021277, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.082478, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.129162, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.175439, "worst_return": -0.010482, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.015038, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.07311, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.071429, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.093525, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.069277, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.032738, "active": 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"2026-07-17", "close": 20.35, "volume": 5735371, "typical_volume": 22194020.15, "trend": 20.154507, "fair_value": 16.741364, "relative_strength": -13.740144, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 5.695549, "energy": 10.027514, "activity_lines": [ 22.698973, 23.506072, 23.510983, 22.087992 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.75, "volume": 2835119, "typical_volume": 22076320.1, "trend": 20.34253, "fair_value": 16.783107, "relative_strength": -17.658895, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -3.0924, "energy": 12.792841, "activity_lines": [ 21.596813, 22.692138, 23.277063, 22.061895 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.5, "volume": 3794062, "typical_volume": 22117690.2, "trend": 20.461027, "fair_value": 16.816553, "relative_strength": -21.356659, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.089796, "energy": 35.416102, "activity_lines": [ 20.347596, 21.775411, 22.907301, 21.943022 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.35, "volume": 2690912, "typical_volume": 21542342.35, "trend": 20.561974, "fair_value": 16.856301, "relative_strength": -19.242674, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.226963, "energy": 48.220475, "activity_lines": [ 19.616667, 21.138088, 22.603203, 21.871342 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 18.700001, "volume": 2704782, "typical_volume": 20688893.15, "trend": 20.60848, "fair_value": 16.892163, "relative_strength": -24.079264, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.275528, "energy": 56.032065, "activity_lines": [ 19.083334, 20.482158, 22.223481, 21.751215 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }