{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a580dbe9-4d14-4cfb-9b3f-aca791dd0f0a", "symbol": "002988", "name": "Guangdong Haomei New Materials Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.544, "architecture_energy": 74.196, "architecture_maturity": 88.0, "architecture_confidence": 95.902, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.09, "rotation_up": 18.03, "upward_expansion": 16.69, "deceleration": 42.11, "rotation_down": 65.87, "downward_expansion": 90.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.287334, 21.39291, 24.884572, 27.220387 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 21.030001, "trend_reference": 30.526334, "distance_from_trend": -0.311087, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 26.325999, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.20117, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -42.631531, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.454899, "excess_performance": -0.462299, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.311087, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.147365, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.20117, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.558638, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.426315, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.148015, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.454899, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.537367, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15885995, "relative_activity": 0.864722, "balance": 0.537367, "dry_up": 0.989608, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.144958, "annualized_volatility": 0.569588, "from_high_reference": -0.602307, "from_low_reference": 0.156766 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 30.526334, "fair_value_reference": 26.325999, "structural_low": 18.18, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.030164, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.037745, "regime_survival": 0.85, "best_return": 0.334082, "worst_return": -0.236933, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.177971, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.046869, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.370786, "worst_return": -0.225058, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.020689, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.109014, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.471884, "worst_return": -0.376901, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.155189, "energy": 88.108628, "activity_lines": [ 21.968, 23.897818, 27.343191, 29.453205 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.940001, "volume": 21579106, "typical_volume": 18422695.6, "trend": 31.600667, "fair_value": 26.289937, "relative_strength": -48.37748, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.452334, "energy": 83.84748, "activity_lines": [ 20.758667, 22.627819, 26.346762, 28.598624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.26, "volume": 15757074, "typical_volume": 18328934.95, "trend": 31.052, "fair_value": 26.304967, "relative_strength": -42.842737, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.078618, "energy": 83.225022, "activity_lines": [ 20.338001, 21.822909, 25.547, 27.866968 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.030001, "volume": 15885995, "typical_volume": 18371216.6, "trend": 30.526334, "fair_value": 26.325999, "relative_strength": -42.631531, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.54359, "energy": 74.19644, "activity_lines": [ 20.287334, 21.39291, 24.884572, 27.220387 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }