{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a584369a-6c69-4738-b7ac-1e90d5305270", "symbol": "SFTR", "name": "Safeture AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 70.998, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 11.683, "architecture_energy": 25.581, "architecture_maturity": 51.597, "architecture_confidence": 69.807, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.5, "rotation_up": 61.6, "upward_expansion": 34.11, "deceleration": 34.91, "rotation_down": 14.92, "downward_expansion": 23.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.888, 3.713455, 3.719714, 3.732989 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 3.96, "trend_reference": 3.774, "distance_from_trend": 0.049285, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.892179, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.327923, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -16.28114, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.010204, "excess_performance": -0.05129, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.049285, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.084277, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.327923, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018507, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.162811, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.085571, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.010204, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.787187, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14180, "relative_activity": 0.281555, "balance": 0.787187, "dry_up": 0.690361, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.077312, "annualized_volatility": 0.383249, "from_high_reference": -0.28, "from_low_reference": 0.294118 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.774, "fair_value_reference": 5.892179, "structural_low": 3.06, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": -0.049359, "positive_rate": 0.323529, "directional_follow_through": 0.647059, "median_excess_return": -0.062343, "regime_survival": 0.882353, "best_return": 0.687117, "worst_return": -0.429091, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.132685, "positive_rate": 0.083333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.123656, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.627354, "worst_return": -0.457576, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.117284, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.146392, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": -0.036364, "worst_return": -0.303797, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"fair_value": 5.916538, "relative_strength": -27.291407, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.102901, "energy": 63.917065, "activity_lines": [ 3.382667, 3.529091, 3.661143, 3.717677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.56, "volume": 43985, "typical_volume": 64691.6, "trend": 3.825333, "fair_value": 5.908462, "relative_strength": -23.113329, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.12832, "energy": 65.335102, "activity_lines": [ 3.42, 3.514909, 3.647048, 3.698538 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.04, "volume": 69028, "typical_volume": 52883.1, "trend": 3.809333, "fair_value": 5.903718, "relative_strength": -13.375548, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -15.208834, "energy": 13.370627, "activity_lines": [ 3.630667, 3.594545, 3.678095, 3.712387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.96, "volume": 11882, "typical_volume": 50516.85, "trend": 3.791333, "fair_value": 5.898333, "relative_strength": -15.420511, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -6.573491, "energy": 17.502314, "activity_lines": [ 3.778667, 3.654545, 3.699143, 3.722108 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.96, "volume": 14180, "typical_volume": 50363.15, "trend": 3.774, "fair_value": 5.892179, "relative_strength": -16.28114, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 11.682909, "energy": 25.58113, "activity_lines": [ 3.888, 3.713455, 3.719714, 3.732989 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }