{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a584fa16-c780-4dfb-9971-b14f2ce092b9", "symbol": "BALMLAWRIE", "name": "Balmer Lawrie & Co. Ltd.", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 48.383, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -11.464, "architecture_energy": 27.52, "architecture_maturity": 14.14, "architecture_confidence": 47.346, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.65, "rotation_up": 18.63, "upward_expansion": 21.78, "deceleration": 51.42, "rotation_down": 49.78, "downward_expansion": 42.11 }, "activity_lines": [ 174.960001, 176.789275, 179.060668, 177.582951 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 175.190002, "trend_reference": 175.496194, "distance_from_trend": -0.001745, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 197.206837, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.111643, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.63575, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.004664, "excess_performance": 0.039045, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.001745, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004478, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.111643, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.133086, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.036358, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.11463, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.004664, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.277071, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 548711, "relative_activity": 0.741895, "balance": 0.277071, "dry_up": 0.742037, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.044549, "annualized_volatility": 0.217559, "from_high_reference": -0.218374, "from_low_reference": 0.180844 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 175.496194, "fair_value_reference": 197.206837, "structural_low": 148.360001, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.052083, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.022775, "regime_survival": 0.416667, "best_return": 0.071673, "worst_return": -0.115757, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.104685, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.05166, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.052498, "worst_return": -0.154151, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.068146, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.034509, "regime_survival": 0.166667, 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179.913456, 179.977578, 177.921436 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 174.600006, "volume": 397135, "typical_volume": 804483.35, "trend": 175.772931, "fair_value": 196.672093, "relative_strength": -1.177882, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 6.915199, "energy": 7.099151, "activity_lines": [ 177.840003, 178.687639, 179.751764, 177.834227 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 172.199997, "volume": 788587, "typical_volume": 760482.2, "trend": 175.511843, "fair_value": 196.906955, "relative_strength": -4.774693, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": -1.046287, "energy": 13.404759, "activity_lines": [ 175.666001, 177.388002, 179.280668, 177.603715 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 175.190002, "volume": 548711, "typical_volume": 739606.9, "trend": 175.496194, "fair_value": 197.206837, "relative_strength": -3.63575, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -11.464289, "energy": 27.520092, "activity_lines": [ 174.960001, 176.789275, 179.060668, 177.582951 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }