{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a58a6fbe-8549-489a-b0db-c15c130247f9", "symbol": "H50A", "name": "HSBC EURO STOXX 50 UCITS ETF EUR (Acc)", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 84.617, "architecture_energy": 72.951, "architecture_maturity": 32.323, "architecture_confidence": 82.602, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.38, "rotation_up": 63.71, "upward_expansion": 87.22, "deceleration": 52.18, "rotation_down": 22.62, "downward_expansion": 13.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 80.845332, 80.223636, 78.419523, 76.954021 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 82.809998, "trend_reference": 75.535, "distance_from_trend": 0.096313, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 58.05096, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.426505, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.497268, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.111842, "excess_performance": -0.05905, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.096313, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039415, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.426505, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.09274, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.024973, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002786, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.111842, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.968869, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 31898, "relative_activity": 0.646212, "balance": 1.968869, "dry_up": 0.799013, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.023455, "annualized_volatility": 0.171352, "from_high_reference": -0.004807, "from_low_reference": 0.266595 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 75.535, "fair_value_reference": 58.05096, "structural_low": 66.870003, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.015849, "positive_rate": 0.727273, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.001015, "regime_survival": 0.909091, "best_return": 0.05923, "worst_return": -0.103457, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.048972, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.020427, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.076369, "worst_return": 0.010977, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.092988, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.041479, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.129081, "worst_return": 0.056894, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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46560, "typical_volume": 54842.1, "trend": 75.255667, "fair_value": 57.840704, "relative_strength": -2.336216, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.592414, "energy": 55.90844, "activity_lines": [ 79.893999, 79.518727, 77.757143, 76.466645 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 82.809998, "volume": 31898, "typical_volume": 49361.5, "trend": 75.535, "fair_value": 58.05096, "relative_strength": -2.497268, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.617062, "energy": 72.950539, "activity_lines": [ 80.845332, 80.223636, 78.419523, 76.954021 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }