{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a598ef29-6517-47c3-b136-84976383e22a", "symbol": "301070", "name": "Kale Environment Technology (Shanghai) Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 5.19, "architecture_energy": 24.009, "architecture_maturity": 68.173, "architecture_confidence": 73.288, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.02, "rotation_up": 20.71, "upward_expansion": 46.36, "deceleration": 82.31, "rotation_down": 47.37, "downward_expansion": 35.69 }, "activity_lines": [ 62.671332, 69.588259, 70.566007, 66.675447 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 67.489998, "trend_reference": 60.547476, "distance_from_trend": 0.114662, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 32.801485, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.057529, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 28.691095, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.644665, "excess_performance": 0.637265, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.114662, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.203864, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.057529, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.593417, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.286911, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.194697, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.644665, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.676096, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 20535417, "relative_activity": 0.71732, "balance": 0.676096, "dry_up": 0.834505, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.200116, "annualized_volatility": 0.941534, "from_high_reference": -0.274223, "from_low_reference": 1.194797 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 60.547476, "fair_value_reference": 32.801485, "structural_low": 40.507141, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.059377, "positive_rate": 0.6875, "directional_follow_through": 0.6875, "median_excess_return": 0.041019, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.338974, "worst_return": -0.235176, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.211182, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": 0.1344, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.573467, "worst_return": -0.216674, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.359961, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.169743, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.4496, "worst_return": -0.121102, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"gate": "up", "direction": 71.763678, "energy": 82.710973, "activity_lines": [ 85.573143, 79.975533, 73.02832, 66.368965 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 60.0, "volume": 25798575, "typical_volume": 27581209.7, "trend": 58.838762, "fair_value": 32.059884, "relative_strength": 22.06286, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.350145, "energy": 35.773053, "activity_lines": [ 77.821333, 76.968026, 72.483361, 66.476925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 59.119999, "volume": 27818922, "typical_volume": 28254819.5, "trend": 59.410857, "fair_value": 32.303894, "relative_strength": 18.814181, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 20.101186, "energy": 13.705485, "activity_lines": [ 70.426666, 74.076494, 71.789388, 66.495069 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 54.48, "volume": 21407757, "typical_volume": 28641577.05, "trend": 59.763286, "fair_value": 32.508838, "relative_strength": 10.554386, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -4.96371, "energy": 19.488158, "activity_lines": [ 63.354666, 70.520961, 70.581715, 66.17695 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 67.489998, "volume": 20535417, "typical_volume": 28627953.75, "trend": 60.547476, "fair_value": 32.801485, "relative_strength": 28.691095, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 5.189971, "energy": 24.008996, "activity_lines": [ 62.671332, 69.588259, 70.566007, 66.675447 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }