{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a59954d0-41bd-44f4-939e-429a25180937", "symbol": "BKY", "name": "Berkeley Energia Limited", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 59.85, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 17.731, "architecture_energy": 11.291, "architecture_maturity": 13.232, "architecture_confidence": 62.477, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 62.17, "rotation_up": 32.49, "upward_expansion": 42.33, "deceleration": 47.04, "rotation_down": 28.95, "downward_expansion": 7.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.2504, 0.250236, 0.244286, 0.243157 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.25, "trend_reference": 0.24725, "distance_from_trend": 0.011122, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.215561, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.159765, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -9.720697, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.067164, "excess_performance": -0.118399, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.011122, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003894, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.159765, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.159662, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.097207, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.114664, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.067164, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.059366, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 167820, "relative_activity": 0.163408, "balance": 1.059366, "dry_up": 0.15204, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.095172, "annualized_volatility": 0.375106, "from_high_reference": -0.241505, "from_low_reference": 0.256281 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.24725, "fair_value_reference": 0.215561, "structural_low": 0.199, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.008977, "positive_rate": 0.4375, "directional_follow_through": 0.4375, "median_excess_return": -0.025929, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 1.32, "worst_return": -0.536232, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.069959, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.011197, "regime_survival": 0.111111, "best_return": 0.796296, "worst_return": -0.543478, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.07644, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.020621, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.444444, "worst_return": -0.586957, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.025, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.04229, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.427778, "worst_return": -0.391304, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.225, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.155172, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.176471, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.218107, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.070922, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.004065, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.035433, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.071429, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.075862, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": 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1070466.55, "trend": 0.247117, "fair_value": 0.215093, "relative_strength": -8.874333, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -0.180325, "energy": 5.443666, "activity_lines": [ 0.246467, 0.248982, 0.240876, 0.242288 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.258, "volume": 145760, "typical_volume": 1042549.8, "trend": 0.247417, "fair_value": 0.215304, "relative_strength": -6.815691, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 17.589742, "energy": 10.138694, "activity_lines": [ 0.249533, 0.250564, 0.242993, 0.24299 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.25, "volume": 167820, "typical_volume": 1027001.1, "trend": 0.24725, "fair_value": 0.215561, "relative_strength": -9.720697, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 17.731038, "energy": 11.290856, "activity_lines": [ 0.2504, 0.250236, 0.244286, 0.243157 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }