{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a5996384-3484-4764-8813-c7ce0ef90144", "symbol": "HOD", "name": "Hod Assaf Industries Ltd.", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -68.452, "architecture_energy": 68.512, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.37, "rotation_up": 29.99, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 60.8, "rotation_down": 59.42, "downward_expansion": 87.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 32.996, 33.656364, 1025.510952, 1824.588172 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 33.01, "trend_reference": 2773.354, "distance_from_trend": -0.988097, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3966.619359, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.991678, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -99.230895, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.99235, "excess_performance": -1.02125, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.988097, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.35896, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.991678, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.900783, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.992309, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.584139, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.99235, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.405168, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5899, "relative_activity": 1.270898, "balance": 0.405168, "dry_up": 0.89328, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 9.741197, "annualized_volatility": 6.373675, "from_high_reference": -0.994093, "from_low_reference": 0.058013 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2773.354, "fair_value_reference": 3966.619359, "structural_low": 31.2, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": -0.025065, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": -0.040161, "regime_survival": 0.928571, "best_return": 0.188604, "worst_return": -0.990379, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.052392, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.091006, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.328228, "worst_return": -0.991537, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.167819, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.203584, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.420112, "worst_return": -0.99211, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"close": 32.8, "volume": 1022, "typical_volume": 4447.35, "trend": 3069.984333, "fair_value": 4009.182885, "relative_strength": -99.298287, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.989529, "energy": 72.400417, "activity_lines": [ 33.357333, 233.042545, 1456.331619, 2207.100946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 33.08, "volume": 5149, "typical_volume": 4536.95, "trend": 2925.053667, "fair_value": 3988.176987, "relative_strength": -99.251071, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.884618, "energy": 69.210995, "activity_lines": [ 33.134, 99.683818, 1231.141476, 2011.171634 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 33.01, "volume": 5899, "typical_volume": 4641.6, "trend": 2773.354, "fair_value": 3966.619359, "relative_strength": -99.230895, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.452022, "energy": 68.511598, "activity_lines": [ 32.996, 33.656364, 1025.510952, 1824.588172 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }